Dr. Pao-Shin Chu's Publications


Shan, K., Lin, Y., P.-S. Chu, X. Yu, and F. Song, 2023: Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate. Nature , 623, , 83–89.

Yao, S.-L., J.-J. Luo, P.-S. Chu, and F. Zheng, 2023: Decadal variations of Pacific Walker circulation tied to tropical Atlantic–Pacific trans-basin SST gradients. Environ. Res. Lett., 18, 064016, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acd12f.

Shan, K., P.-S. Chu, and X. Yu, 2023: Interdecadal Change of Tropical Cyclone Translation Speed during Peak Season in South China Sea: Observed Evidence, Model Results, and Possible Mechanism. J. Climate., 36, 4531–4541, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0704.1.

Frazier, A.G., C.P. Giardina, T.W. Giambelluca, L. Brewington, Y.-L. Chen, P.-S. Chu, L. Berio Fortini, D. Hall, D.A. Helweg, V.W. Keener, R.J. Longman, M.P. Lucas, A. Mair, D.S. Oki, J.J Reyes, S.G. Yelenik, C. Trauernicht, 2022: A Century of Drought in Hawaiʻi: Geospatial Analysis and Synthesis across Hydrological, Ecological, and Socioeconomic Scales. Sustainability, 14, 12023. doi: 10.3390/su141912023

Yao, S.-L., P.-S. Chu, Renguang Wu & Fei Zheng, 2022: Model consistency for the underlying mechanisms for the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation-tropical Atlantic connection. Environmental Research Letters. 17. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aca2bd.

Kim S.-H., H.-W. Kang, I.-J. Moon, S. K. Kang, and P.-S. Chu, 2022: Effects of the reduced air-sea drag coefficient in high winds on the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones and bimodality of the lifetime maximum intensity. Front. Mar. Sci., 9, 1032888. doi: 10.3389/fmars.2022.1032888.

Chu. P.-S., and H. Murakami, 2022: Climate Variability and Tropical Cyclone Activity. Cambridge University Press, New York., 320pp

Chowdhury, M.R., P.-S. Chu, Ndiaye, O. et al., 2022: Rainfall and sea-level variability in the face of changing El Niño: evidence from the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands. Meteorol Atmos Phys., 134,80. doi: 10.1007/s00703-022-00920-7

Xu, Lei., C. Zhang, N. Chen, H. Moradkhani, P.-S. Chu, and X. Zhang, 2020: Potential precipitation predictability decreases under future warming. Geophysical Research Letters., e2020GL090798. doi: 10.1029/2020GL090798

Lu, B.-Y., P.-S. Chu, S.-H. Kim, and C. Karamperidou, 2020: Hawaiian Regional Climate Variability during Two Types of El Niño. J. Climate., 33, 9929–9943, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0985.1.

Kim, S.-H., I.-J. Moon, and P.-S. Chu, 2020: An increase in global trends of tropical cyclone translation speed since 1982 and its physical causes. Environ. Res. Lett., 15, 094084.

Basher, M. A., A. K. M. S. Islam, M. Stiller-Reeve, and P.-S. Chu, 2020: Changes in future rainfall extremes over Northeast Bangladesh: A Bayesian model averaging approach. Int J Climatol., 40, 3232– 3249. doi: 10.1002/joc.6394

Chowdhury, R., and P.-S. Chu, 2019: A Study on the Changing Climate in the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Islands Using Observations and CMIP5 Model Output. Meteorol Appl., 26, 528– 541.

Lee, W., S-H. Kim, P.-S. Chu, I-J. Moon, and A.V. Soloviev, 2019: An index to better estimate tropical cyclone intensity change in the western North Pacific. Geophys. Res. Lett., 46, 8960-8968. Doi: 10.1029/2019GL 083273.

Zhang, H., P.-S. Chu, L. He, and D. Unger, 2019: Improving the CPC's ENSO forecasts using Bayesian model averaging. Clim. Dyn., 53, 3373-3385.

Chu. P.-S., and P. Wu, 2018: Climatic Atlas of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Central North Pacific from 1966 to 2003

Chu, P.-S., H. Zhang, Chang H‐L, Chen T‐L, Tofte K., 2018: Trends in return levels of 24‐hr precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan. Int J Climatol, 38, 5107-5124. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.571

Kim S.-H., I.-J. Moon, P.-S. Chu, 2018: Statistical-Dynamical typhoon intensity predictions in the Western North Pacific using track pattern clustering and ocean coupling predictions. Weather Forecast.,33, 347-365.

Hsu P.-C., T.-H Lee, C.-H Tsou, P.-S. Chu, Y. Qian and M. Bi, 2017: Role of scale interactions in the abrupt change of tropical cyclone in autumn over the Western North Pacific. Clim. Dyn, 49(9),3175-3192. doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3504-x.

Chang H.-L., B. G. Brown, P.-S. Chu , Y.-C. Liou and W.-H. Wang, 2017: Nowcast guidance of afternoon convection initiation for Taiwan. Weather Forecast., 32, 1801-1817.

Tofte K., P.-S. Chu, G. M. Barns, 2017: Large-scale weather patterns favorable for volcanic smog occurrences on O'ahu, Hawai'i. Air Qual Atmos Health, 10(10), 1163-1180. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11869-017-0502-z

O'Conner, C.F., P.-S. Chu, P.-C. Hsu, and K. Kodama, 2015: Variability of Hawaiian winter rainfall during La Nina events since 1956.  J. Climate, 28, 7809-7823.  

Md Chowdhury, P.-S. Chu, 2015: Sea level forecasts and early warning application: Expanding cooperation in the South Pacific. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc, 96, 381-386.

Zhao, H., P.-S. Chu., P.-C. Hsu, and H. Murakami, 2014: Exploratory analysis of extremely low tropical cyclone activity during the late-season of 2010 and 1998 over the weatern North Pacific and the South China Sea. J. Advances in Modeling Earth Systerms, 6, 1141-1153.

Chen, Y. R., P.-S. Chu, 2014: Trends in precipitation extremes and return levels in the Hawaiian Islands under a changing climate. Int. J. Climatol, 34, 3913-3925.

Fares, A., R. Awal, J. Michaud, P.-S. Chu, S. Fares, K. Kodama, and M. Rosener, 2014:Rainfall-Runoff Modeling in a Flashy Tropical Watershed Using the 2 Distributed HL-RDHM Model. J. Hydrology, 519, 3436-3447.

Hsu, P.-C., P.-S. Chu, H. Murakami, and X. Zhao, 2014: An abrupt decrease in the late-season typhoon activity over the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 27, 4296-4312.

Stiller-Reeve, M.A., T. Spengler, P.-S. Chu, 2014: Testing a Flexible Method to Reduce False Monsoon Onsets. PLoS ONE, 9, e104386. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0104386

Chowdhury M. R., P.-S., Chu, and C. Guard, 2014: An Improved Sea Level Forecasting Scheme for Hazards Management in the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands. Int. J. Climatol, 34, 2320-2329.

Chu, P.-S., D.-J. Chen, and P.-L. Lin, 2014: Trends in precipitation extremes during the typhoon season in Taiwan over the last 60 years. Atm. Sci. Lett., 15, 37-43.

Chen, Yi-Leng, Pay-Liam Lin, Feng Hsiao, Pao-Shin Chu, Mei-Huei Su, 2013: Asia–pacific natural hazard conference: disastrous weather in a changing climate. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, ES175–ES178.

Giambelluca, T., Q. Chen, A. Frazier, J. Price, Y.-L. Chen, P.-S. Chu, J. Eischeid, and D.M. Delparte, 2013: Online rainfall atlas of Hawaii. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 94, 154-160.

Garza, J., P.-S. Chu, C. Norton, and T.A. Schroeder, 2012: Changes of the prevailing trade winds over the Isalnds of Hawaii and the North Pacific. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmospheres), 117, D11109, doi: 10.1029/2011JD016888.

Chu, P.S., J.-H. Kim, and Y.R. Chen, 2012: Have steering flows over the western North Pacific and the South China Sea changed over the last 50 years? Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10704, doi:10.1029/2012GL051709

Kim, H.-S., J.-H. Kim, C.-H. Ho, and P.-S. Chu, 2012: Track-pattern-based model for seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific. J Climate, 25, 4660-4679, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00236.1.

Craddock, R.A., A.D. Howard, R. P. Irwin, R. M. E. Williams, S. Tooth, P.-S. Chu, and D. Swanson, 2012: Gully Development in the Keanakako'i Tephra, Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i: Implications for Fluvial Erosion and Valley Network Formation on Early Mars. J. Geophys. Res. (Planet), 117, E08009, doi:10.1029/2012JE004074.

Norton, C., P.-S. Chu, and T. A. Schroeder, 2011: Estimating changes in future heavy rainfall events for Oahu, Hawaii: A statistical downscaling approach. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 116, D17110, doi: 10.1029/2011JD015641.

Chu, P.S. and X. Zhao, 2011: Bayesian analysis for extreme climatic events: A review. Atmospheric Research,, 102, 243-262.

Kim, H.-S., J.-H. Kim, C.-H. Ho, and P.-S. Chu, 2011: Pattern classification of typhoon tracks using the fuzzy c-means clustering method. J. Climate, 24, 488-508.

Chu P.-S., Y. R. Chen, and T.A. Schroeder, 2010: Changes in precipitation extremes in the Hawaiian Islands in a warming climate. J. Climate, 23, 4881-4900.

Lu, M.-M., P.-S. Chu, and Y.-C. Lin, 2010: Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the Bayesian multivariate regression method. Weather and Forecasting, 25, 1780-1795.

Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao, C.-H. Ho, H.-S. Kim, M.-M. Lu, and J.-H. Kim, 2010: Bayesian forecasting of seasonal typhoon activity: A track-pattern-oriented categorization approach. J. Climate, 23, 6654-6668.

Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao, and J.-H. Kim, 2010: Regional typhoon activity as revealed by track patterns and climate change. Hurricanes and Climate Change, Vol. 2, Eds. J. Elsner et al., Springer, 137-148.

Chowdhury, M..R., A.G. Barnston, C. Guard, S. Duncan, T.A. Schroeder, and P.-S. Chu, 2010: Sea-level variability and change in the US-affiliated Pacific islands: Understanding the high sea levels during 2006-2008. Weather, 65, 263-268.

Zhao, X., and P.-S. Chu, 2010: Bayesian change-point analysis for extreme events (Typhoons, Heavy rainfall, and Heat Waves): A RJMCMC approach. J. Climate, 23, 1034-1046.

Kim, H.S., C.-H. Ho, P.-S. Chu, and J.-H. Kim, 2010: Seasonal prediction of summertime tropical cyclone activity over the East China Sea using the least absolute deviation regression and the Poisson regression. Int. J. Climatol., 30, 210-219.

Kim, J.-H., C.-H. Ho, and P.-S. Chu, 2010: Dipolar redistribution of summertime tropical cyclone genesis between the Philippine Sea and the northern South China Sea and;its possible mechanisms. J. Geophys. Res-Atmosphere., 115, D06104, doi:10.1029/2009JD012196.

Chowdhury, MR., P.-S. Chu, X. Zhao, T.A. Schroeder, and J. Marra, 2010: Sea level extremes in the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands - A coastal hazard scenario to aid in decision analyses. J. Coast. Conserv.,14, 53-62, DOI 10.1007/s11852-010-0086-3.

Tu, J.-Y., C. Chou, and P.-S. Chu, 2009: Abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with the western North Pacific-East Asia climate change. J. Climate, 22, 3617-3628.

Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao,Y. Ruan, and M. Grubbs, 2009: Extreme rainfall events in the Hawaiian Islands. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatology, 48, 502-516.

Dolling, K., P.-S. Chu, and F. Fujioka, 2009: Natural variability of the Keetch/Byram drought index in the Hawaiian Islands. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 459-475.

Ho, C.-H., H.-S. Kim, and P.-S. Chu, 2009: Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency over the east China Sea through a Bayesian Poisson-regression method. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 45, 45-54.

Chowdhury, Md. R., P.-S. Chu, T.A. Schroeder, and X. Zhao, 2008: Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S. Trust Islands: A knowledge base for coastal hazards management.  J. Coastal Conservation12, 93-104.

Chowdhury, Md. R., P.-S. Chu, X. Zhao, and T.A. Schroeder, 2008: Sea-level extremes and challenges to manage the risk of coastal hazards in the vicinity of Hawaiian Islands.  Solutions to Coastal Disasters, L. Wallendorf, C. Jones, L. Ewing, and B. Jaffe, Eds., American Society of Civil Engineers, 28-37.

Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao, 2007: A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal cyclone activity over central North Pacific. J. Climate, 20, 4002-4013.

Wu, P., and P.-S. Chu, 2007: Characteristics of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific: The extremely active 1992 and the inactive 1977. Tellus A, 59, 444-454.

Chowdhury, Md. R., P,-S. Chu, T.A. Schroeder, and N. Colasacco, 2007: Seasonal sea-level forecasts by canonical correlation analysis - An operational scheme for the U.S.-affiliated Pacific islands. Int. J. Climatol., 27, 1389-1402.

Chowdhury, Md. R., P,-S. Chu, and T.A. Schroeder, 2007: ENSO and seasonal sea-level variability: A diagnostic discussion for the Pacific islands. Theo. Appl. Climatol., 88, 213-224.

Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao, C.-T. Lee, and M.-M. Lu, 2007: Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method. Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, 18, 805-825.

Zhao, X., and P.-S. Chu, 2006: Bayesian multiple changepoint analysis of hurricane activity in the eastern North Pacific: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. J. Climate, 19, 564-578.

Chu, P.-S., and H. Chen, 2005: Interannual and interdecadal rainfall variations in the Hawaiian Islands. J. Climate18, 4796-4813.

Dolling, K., P.-S. Chu, and F. Fujioka, 2005: A climatological study of the Keetch/Byram drought index and fire activity in the Hawaiian Islands. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 133, 17-27.

Chu, P.-S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Potential. R.J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 297-332.

Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao, 2004: Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: The central North Pacific case. Journal of Climate, 17, 4893-4901.

Zveryaev, I.I., and P.-S. Chu, 2003: Recent climate changes in precipitable water in the global tropics as revealed in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. J. Geophys. Res. (Atmosphere), 108, D10, 4311-4320.

Chu, P.-S., 2002: Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the Central North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2678-2689.

Clark, J.D., and P.-S. Chu, 2002: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity in the central North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80, 403-418.

Chu, P.-S., W. Yan, and F. Fujioka, 2002: Fire-climate relationships and long-lead wildfire prediction for Hawaii. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 25-31.

Chu, P.-S., and J.D. Clark, 1999: Decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1875-1881.

Lee, H-K., P.-S. Chu, C.-H. Sui and K.-M. Lau, 1998: On the Annual Cycle of Latent Heat Fluxes over the Equatorial Pacific using TAO Buoy Observations. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 76, 909-923.

Chu, P.-S., 1998: Short-term climate prediction of Mei-Yu rainfall for Taiwan using CCA.  Int. J. Climatol.,18, 215-224.

Chu, P.-S. and J.X. Wang, 1998: Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 951-960.

Chu, P.-S. and J.-B. Wang, 1997: Recent climate change in the tropical western Pacific and Indian ocean regions as detected by outgoing longwave radiation records. J. Climate, 10, 636-646.

Yu, Z.-P., P.-S, Chu and T.A. Schroeder, 1997: Predictive skills of seasonal to annual rainfall variations in the U.S. affiliated Pacific islands: Canonical correlation and multivariate principal component regression approaches. J. Climate, 10, 2586-2599.

Chu, P.-S. and J. X.Wang, 1997: Tropical cyclone occurrences in the vicinity of Hawaii: Are the differences between El Nino and non-El Nino years significant? J. Climate, 10, 2683-2689.

Chu, P.-S., 1995: Hawaii rainfall anomalies and El Niño.  J. Climate, 8, 1697-1703.

Chu, P.-S. and S. Hastenrath, 1995: Reply to comments on "Detecting climate change concurrent with deforestation in the Amazon basin: Which way has it gone?" Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 559-560.

Chu, P.-S., 1995: Book review for "Monsoons over China" by Ding Yihui.  Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 76, 254-255.
ChuP.-S., R.W. Katz, and P. Ding, 1995: Modeling and forecasting seasonal precipitation in Florida: A vector time-domain approach.  Int. J. Climatol., 15, 53-64.

Chu, P.-S., Z.-P. Yu, and S. Hastenrath, 1994: Detecting climate change concurrent with deforestation in the Amazon basin: Which way has it gone?   Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 579-583.

Chu, P.-S. and Y. He, 1994: Long-range prediction of Hawaiian winter rainfall using canonical correlation analysis.  Int. J. Climatol., 14, 659-669.

Chu, P.-S., A.J. Nash, and F. Porter, 1993: Diagnostic studies of two contrasting rainfall episodes in Hawaii: Dry 1981 and Wet 1982.  J. Climate, 6, 1457-1462.

Chu, P.-S., 1993: Some applications of time series models to climate study (Southern Oscillation): Modeling, forecasting and predictability.  Stochastic Hydrology and Its Use in Water Resources Systems Simulation and Optimization.  J.B. Marco, R. Harboe, and J.D. Salas, Eds., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 223-227.

Chu, P.-S., J. Frederick, and A.J. Nash, 1991: Exploratory analysis of surface winds in the equatorial western Pacific and El Nino. J. Climate, 4, 1087-1102.

Chu, P.-S., 1991:  Brazil's climate anomalies and ENSO.  Teleconnections linking worldwide climate anomalies:  Scientific basis and societal impact.  M.H. Glantz, R.W. Katz, and N. Nicholls, Eds., Cambridge University Press, 43-71.

Chu, P.-S., and J. Frederick, 1990: Westerly wind bursts and surface heat fluxes in the equatorial western Pacific in May 1982.   J. Meteor. Soc. Japan68, 523-537.

Chen, W., and P.-S. Chu, 1990: On the couplings between Chebyshev coefficients as derived from the monthly mean geopotential fields at 500 hPa over East Asia and the Southern Oscillation.  Adv. Atmos. Sci., 7, 347-353.

Chu, P.-S., 1989: Hawaiian drought and the Southern Oscillation.  Int. J. Climatol., 9, 619-631.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1989: Spectral estimation from time series models with relevance to the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 86-90.

Chu, P.-S., 1988: Extratropical forcing and the burst of equatorial westerlies in the western Pacific: A synoptic study.  J. Meteor. Soc. Japan66, 549-564.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1987: Measures of predictability with application to the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1542-1549.

Chu, P.-S., 1985:  A contribution to upper-air climatology of tropical South America.  J. Climatol., 5, 403-416.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1985: Modeling and forecasting the Southern Oscillation: A time-domain approach. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1876-1888.

Chu, P.-S., 1984:  Time and space variability of rainfall and surface circulation in the Northeast Brazil-tropical Atlantic sector.  J. Meteor. Soc. Japan62, 363-370.

Hastenrath, S., M.-C. Wu and P.-S. Chu, 1984: Towards the monitoring and prediction of Northeast Brazil droughts.  Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 110, 411-425.

Chu, P.-S. and S.-U. Park, 1984: Regional circulation characteristics associated with a cold surge event over East Asia during Winter MONEX. Mon. Wea. Rev., 112, 955-965.

Chu, P.-S. and D. Sikdar, 1983: Characteristics of sea-level pressure and surface temperature variations during Winter MONEX: December 1978.  J. Meteor. Soc. Japan61, 717-726.

Chu, P.-S., 1983: Diagnostic studies of rainfall anomalies in Northeast Brazil. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111, 1655-1664.

V.E. Kousky and P.-S. Chu, 1978: Fluctuations in annual rainfall for northeast Brazil.J. Meteor. Soc. Japan56, 457-465.