MS Plan B Defense: Extreme wave height estimation from a global wave hindcast ensemble

Andi Erickson
Graduate Student
Department of Ocean and Resources Engineering
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa

Across the oceans, strong storms generate powerful waves that impact human activities such as commerce and design of coastal and offshore structures. To mitigate damages to these activities and to properly design infrastructures, it is imperative to understand the extreme wave climate. Previous works typically use a single dataset to describe the extreme wave climate. Here we analyze a comprehensive ensemble of 11 wave hindcasts most covering 30 years (1979-2016) to estimate extreme wave conditions at a commonly used return period of 100 years. To verify the hindcasts ability to capture extreme waves we compare to buoy observations. We find that the hindcasts typically underestimate the 100-year wave heights when using the peaks over threshold (POT) method or annual maximum method (AMM). Overall the 100-year hindcast wave heights from the POT method match those of buoys while the hindcasts have more pronounced discrepancies from the buoy wave heights when using the AMM. The estimation of the 100-year wave height globally reveals unique features of the wave climate and the ensemble internal variability identifies regional patterns of larger uncertainties. The 100-year wave heights can provide guidance in practical engineering design globally.

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Meeting ID: 947 5656 0724
Passcode: ORE