MS Plan B Defense: Performance Assessment of Wave Models for Cold Front Events in Hawai’i

Liz (Elizabeth) Hauschild
Master’s Student
Department of Ocean and Resources Engineering
University of Hawai’i at Mānoa

**This defense will be held both in person (POST 723) and over Zoom**
Meeting ID: 969 2180 7582
Passcode: LizMS
https://hawaii.zoom.us/j/96921807582

The University of Hawai’i actively supports the United States’ first Wave Energy Test Site (WETS), situated on the east side of Oahu. The site’s location is exposed to a diverse array of wave energy resulting from persistent trade winds, seasonal extratropical storms, and subtropical and tropical systems. If not well understood, the activity and complexity of the wave climate may pose challenges for operation and activities at the site, but thorough planning and preparation results in successful and safe operations at WETS.

This paper proposes an evaluation of the existing numerical wave modeling system used by WETS for operational forecasts and long-term hindcasts on predicting waves under cold front events.

Available wave buoy, hindcast, and historical forecast data were analyzed to characterize the wave conditions during selected cold fronts and quantify the model’s uncertainty in representing such events. We compare wave hindcast data with measured buoy data for verified cold fronts on Oahu for 2000 to 2010, and wave forecast with buoy data for cold fronts in recent years identified using the National Weather Service weather discussion. The results will be immediately beneficial to the WETS programs, aiding in the critical decisions made daily in regard to forecast interpretation and site operations and identifying the model inaccuracies that may contribute to the future improvement of the wave model.