Short-term (6 Days) Wave-driven Flooding Forecasts

As sea level rises, swell wave-driven run up and flooding have become a significant threat to many U.S. and international coastal communities. Their growing frequency of occurrence marks them as coastal hazards that are equivalent to moderate-sized tsunamis. A PacIOOS and CIMAR supported nonlinear, hydrodynamical model of swell wave transformations in shallow water has been validated for accuracy with in situ data and implemented to provide spatially dependent run-up forecasts along West Maui. The product was released on the PacIOOS web site in June 2021. The product has already had an impact among coastal agencies concerned with public safety and coastal erosion, and is being used to investigate how the spatial patterns of flooding will change in the coming decades given various sea level rise scenarios.