Ecological Forecasting

Research under this theme will lead to improved forecasting of the frequency and magnitude of the variability of ecosystem processes within the Pacific Islands region. This research includes monitoring and extensive use of current and past environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic data; large-scale environmental and ecological studies as well as focused process studies for understanding ecosystem functions and change; and, model development, parameterization, and verification. Forecasting will address issues related to human health (e.g., beach closings, fish contaminants, and harmful algal blooms), fish recruitment and productivity, and protected species sustainability and recovery, all of which will be used in the assessment and management of living marine resources and their habitats. Research under this theme will also improve understanding of the causes of climate variability and its effects on ecosystems. Research is often interdisciplinary and involves the physical, natural, and social sciences. Research will identify and elucidate interactions between humans and other ecosystem components at local and regional levels.