Faculty contribute to ocean science forecast report for next decade

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Posted to SOEST News on March 28, 2025 by Marcie Grabowski

Courtesy of NASEM

Major investments are needed for core research in ocean science and to upgrade and replace infrastructure to support use-inspired, basic research in ocean studies, said a new report published by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM). For over two years, Shimi Rii, faculty member at the Hawai‘i Institute of Marine Biology in the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, served as a member of the NASEM committee that authored the consensus study report  intended to inform the next decade of research and innovation.  

“In this report, we challenge ourselves and the broader ocean science community, by 2035, to establish a new paradigm to forecast ocean processes at scales relevant to human well-being,” said Rii. “What this means, is that now is the time to do science differently than we have always done it—through creative partnerships, innovative endeavors, and inclusion of multiple perspectives to enhance scientific advancements.” 

The report, requested and sponsored by the National Science Foundation, focuses on three themes of ocean research important for improving forecasts of ocean processes: ocean and climate, ecosystem resilience, and extreme events, such as tsunamis, hurricanes, storm surges, flooding, and heat waves. It underscores the importance of basic research needed to understand how changes in the health of ocean ecosystems could affect fisheries, how greater access to the Arctic will challenge U.S. national security, how the ocean contributes to extreme weather events, and more.

“I was honored to be invited to join a subcommittee of experts from across the U.S. to address the critical research needs for ‘coastal oceans and urban seas’,” said Margaret McManus, SOEST Department of Oceanography chair, who provided guidance to the committee regarding the most pressing ocean science research questions, challenges, and opportunities in Hawai‘i, the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands, and outlying islands and atolls. “In Hawaiʻi, challenges such as coastal inundation, ocean warming, and marine pollution are becoming increasingly urgent. I was pleased to see our subcommittee’s recommendations included in a cohesive plan to guide the next decade of ocean research and investing.”   

Reinvigorating U.S. leadership in ocean research

The report provides advice to the National Science Foundation on how to reinvigorate U.S. leadership in ocean research. Focusing investments on research, infrastructure, and the ocean studies workforce through a transdisciplinary collaborative framework will help meet national and global challenges in the coming decade and help enhance national security, scientific leadership, and economic competitiveness in support of a thriving U.S. blue economy.

According to the report, accelerating U.S. scientific progress in understanding and forecasting ocean processes is reliant on sustained support for basic research across ocean studies and reinvestment in ocean science infrastructure. The report also highlights that it will require an integrated approach to research that takes full advantage of emerging technologies and methods such as artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques; creative uses of existing underwater infrastructure for research; and gaining new resources and building strategic partnerships among federal and state agencies, industry, academia, and other interest holders. 

Thoughtful deliberations about the future of ocean science

“I was really honored to be selected for the committee,” said Rii. “I was humbled to work amongst seasoned earth science experts from across the nation, and have our perspectives from the Pacific Islands be included for consideration as part of building this report. While not an easy task to incorporate many voices and expectations into our recommendations, I was struck by how thoughtful the deliberations were in thinking through what it really meant to relate technological advances, workforce development, and infrastructure investments to human well-being. Together, we considered how ‘doing things differently’ could facilitate systemic change in valuation, and cultivate safer working environments for the future ocean science workforce.” 

The committee recommended continued funding for core infrastructure supported by the NSF Division of Ocean Sciences, and it also emphasized the importance of investment in new and emerging observational technologies and cyberinfrastructure. The report points out that research vessel capacity within the U.S. Academic Research Feet will be significantly reduced in the coming decade; replacements with comparable or better capability are necessary to meet the challenges of the next decade and beyond. NSF should also take action to regain U.S. leadership in scientific ocean drilling on a global stage, which was the subject of an interim report for this project published in March 2024.

“Investment in ocean science means investing in us,” said Rii. “This includes the retooling and reskilling of the ocean science workforce, which goes beyond traditional academic pathways and positions, to better reflect the collaborations and reciprocity of partnerships that really move the needle towards the next decade of ocean science research. We need to do this together, all hands on deck.”

More on the NASEM Committee and Decadal Survey

The study, undertaken by the Committee on the 2025-2035 Decadal Survey of Ocean Sciences for the National Science Foundation, was sponsored by the National Science Foundation.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine are private, nonprofit institutions that provide independent, objective analysis and advice to the nation to solve complex problems and inform public policy decisions related to science, engineering, and medicine. They operate under an 1863 congressional charter to the National Academy of Sciences, signed by President Lincoln.

Read more in the NASEM press release.