Presented on October 27, 2021, by

Professor Kerry A. Emanuel
Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences (EAPS)
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Cambridge

Abstract: I will present new results from downscaling tropical cyclones from three different 20th century reanalyses, which use only sea surface temperature and sea level pressure observations and show that the resulting time series of various tropical cyclone metrics matches that of historical observations of tropical cyclones. But the same downscaling over the whole globe shows essentially no detectable trends in cyclone activity over the same period. I will speculate about physical drivers of the Atlantic tropical cyclone trends, and also present a risk analysis for Hawaii.