The cost of climate change in Hawai‘i

Several SOEST researchers and faculty members are quoted in a recent Hawaii Business Magazine article about the economic impacts of climate change in Hawai‘i:

Out of 27 extreme weather events in 2016, researchers for the American Meteorological Society have correlated 21 of them to human-caused climate change. “The probability of these intense rainfall events increases as the atmosphere grows warmer,” says Chip Fletcher, vice chair of the Honolulu Climate Change Commission, professor of Geology and Geophysics, and SOEST Associate Dean for Academic Affairs. “These rainfall events are weather. Climate change doesn’t cause weather. But climate change does cause these weather events to grow in severity and therefore cause more damage. We’re confident in saying that the magnitude of events that took place in Hawai‘i this past spring are consistent with what climate change is going to continue to bring to the state.”

It is hard to be nonchalant about the future of our coasts after playing around with the Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) Hawaii Sea Level Rise Viewer. An online resource, it visually illustrates what areas of the state will be affected as warming temperatures and the melting of ice sheets and glaciers increase the volume of the ocean.

Because of Waikīkī’s role in Hawai‘i’s economy, some of the proposed strategies to protect it are beyond what might be recommended elsewhere. “Some of the things we’re talking about are things from an environmental standpoint we wouldn’t necessarily want to do in, say, a rural setting like Kailua. But Waikīkī is different. It’s important to invest in the future of Waikīkī. What the nature of that investment is, is up for discussion,” says Dolan Eversole, Waikīkī Beach management coordinator for the UH Sea Grant Program.

Rosie Alegado, an assistant professor of Oceanography and director of the UH Sea Grant Program Center for Integrated Science, Knowledge, and Culture, has been reading through newspaper articles dating back to 1834 written in Hawaiian mostly by Hawaiians. She finds accounts of how people throughout Hawaii’s history expressed the value of the natural environment, and what they feared could be lost.

“At its simplest terms, it’s about well-being, which is a very intangible concept. Well-being from the point of view of ‘Can I catch enough fish? Do we have enough resources to build my house in a traditional way? Can I continue to get everything I need for my child’s birthday or wedding? Can I go to the same places my parents went to and do the same things? Can we continue to live life the way we always have?’ ” says Alegado.

Read more about their comments, and about current and future impacts of climate change on the people of Hawai‘i, at Hawaii Business Magazine.

Atmospheric scientists sought for expertise on Hurricane Lane

Weather experts from the University of Hawaii at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) shared their knowledge with the public as communities across the state awaited Hurricane Lane’s arrival.

Several faculty in the SOEST Department of Atmospheric Sciences have expertise in hurricanes, and tropical and island meteorology.

Assistant professor Alison Nugent was interviewed by the New York Times and KHON2 and was on-air with KHON2’s meteorologist for nearly six hours on Friday. She kept viewers up to date on the state of the storm; answered viewers questions; and explained hurricane graphics, the reasons for track uncertainty, storm hazards, and more.

“For example, by describing some basic atmospheric science topics, I was able to help viewers grasp the localized nature of wind and rain hazards due to the topography of the islands,” said Nugent. “The most exciting part was when the storm fell apart in front of our eyes on live TV. We could see the upper level clouds being sheared toward the northeast and the lower level clouds beginning to move westward as Hurricane Lane took a turn to the left.”

Steven Businger, professor and chair of the department, discussed (here and here) Hurricane Lane and whether Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa on Hawai‘i Island “protect” the islands from storms. The discussion centered around the influence of environmental winds on the track and wind shear on the intensity of the storm. In particular, as the storm weaken through the action of wind shear as it neared Oahu, its depth became shallower and the low level flow from the NE took over in steering the storm to the west.

Assistant professor Jennifer Griswold and professor Pao-Shin Chu were interviewed for a Civil Beat article and assistant professor Christina Karamperidou spoke with SkyNews during a live broadcast. They shared various tools, apps and webpages for the general public to follow the storm; as well as explanations of how Lane was progressing.

Dennis Hwang, faculty at Hawaii Sea Grant, spoke with television, radio, and ThinkTech Hawaii hosts to help people before the hurricane, and now after, to prepare their homes based on the Homeowner’s Handbook to Prepare for Natural Hazards (here and here). Additionally, he also put together a shelter-in-place table to help people understand if they are safe in their homes or should seek shelter elsewhere, based on how their home was constructed (here).

Chu explained the vertical structure of a mature hurricane and how upper level shear (winds at different altitudes moving in opposite directions) can disrupt the organized structure of a hurricane. “Even though we ‘dodged a bullet’ from Lane, the hurricane season is not over until the end of November and we still have to be vigilant about the future storms,” said Chu.

UPDATE November 18, 2018: Read more in Honolulu Magazine.

Forecasting hurricanes in “cone of uncertainty” a rough challenge

Only two weeks ago, Hurricane Hector passed safely to the south of the islands, as many hurricanes do. A strong ridge of high pressure to the north of Hawai‘i acted as a kind of brick wall, keeping the storm from wandering far enough north to do damage. Hurricane Lane appears to be different. A trough of low pressure to the west of Hawai‘i is generating higher-altitude winds out of the southwest expected to push the hurricane to the north, toward the islands.

Despite advances in dynamic prediction models, it’s challenging to predict the pivot point of a hurricane that’s turning course, said John Bravender, warning coordination meteorologist at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center. On the scale of the globe, the differences are not big. The models may only vary by a couple hundred miles. But out here in the middle of the Pacific, that difference “means day and night,” said Pao-Shin Chu, professor of Atmospheric Sciences and the state climatologist.

Read more about it the Honolulu Civil Beat. Read about natural hazard preparedness via the UH Sea Grant Program.

Potential for flooding with “King Tides” and Hurricane Hector

As Hurricane Hector approaches, the best would be for it to keep pushing south. The worst, could be the timing. The storm comes just as experts are predicting “King Tides.” “We always hope for the best, but plan for the worst,” Honolulu’s Mayor Kirk Caldwell said. “If you see high tides and a storm surge, you’re going to see flooding.”

According to researchers from the UH Sea Grant College Program, “King Tides” were already expected to roll in this Thursday and Friday. “We can say that Hurricane Hector may exacerbate the high water levels that we’re already expecting,” Maya Walton, Program Leader and Research Coordinator at UH Sea Grant said.

Meteorologist with the Central Pacific Hurricane Center say the surf from Hector could build up the tides even higher and increase coastal flooding. Especially for areas prone to floods, like Mapunapuna and Waikīkī.

King Tides are expected to peak on Thursday at 3:05 p.m, in waters off Honolulu. Researchers say it’s too soon to tell how much the tides will increase, but they also predict it’ll be higher expected. “We’ll really have to go out and take photographs and report observations,” Walton added. She says to consider safety first, but if you are along the coastline and can snap a photo, submit it to the Hawaii and Pacific Islands King Tides Project.

Read more about it and watch the video report at KITV.

As hurricane season starts, past disasters offer glimpse of warmer future

Hurricane season officially begins Friday. Forecasters say the Central Pacific could see three to six tropical cyclones that would bring torrential rains, strong winds and severe flooding. This all comes as the state is still recovering from a record-breaking winter storm that pummeled parts of O‘ahu and Kaua‘i in April.

Heavy rains triggered floods and mudslides that made major roads inaccessible, destroyed and stranded cars, and ripped homes from their foundations. Some 532 homes were damaged or destroyed in the event, and the amount of rainfall — nearly 50 inches in a 24-hour period — could break a national record if verified. UPDATE 09-06-19: NOAA’s National Climate Extremes Committee (NCEC) has confirmed the 24-hour rainfall of 49.69 inches at Waipā Garden on Kaua‘i on 14–15 April 2018, a new US record. (Pao-Shin Chu, professor of Atmospheric Sciences and Hawai‘i State Climatologist, is one of the three members on the NCEC.)

Experts say the image of cars under water and homes toppled over serves as an important reminder for what the islands could see more of by the end of the century as a result of climate change: more storms and more intense storms that might not only happen more regularly, but could become the norm.

“It’s very gradual, and just because we had a record-breaking event doesn’t mean next year we’re going to have that again,” said Steven Businger, professor and chair of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences (ATMO). “But the state will have more record floods in the future.”

Yuqing Wang, professor of Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) researcher, adds that it was an event triggered primarily by La Niña. But the cold air mixed with the warmer sea surface temperature resulted in an unstable atmosphere. “They bring such extreme events because the sea surface temperature is really high around Hawai‘i,” he said. “About 2 degrees higher than normal.”

Watch the video report and read more about it at Hawaii News Now.

Hawai‘i’s silent danger: Volcanic smog, otherwise known as “vog”

The recent eruption of Hawai‘i’s Kīlauea has generated apocalyptic scenes of bright red lava exploding hundreds of feet into the sky and burning buildings consumed by the molten rock. But there’s another danger, silent and often unseen, that has been with Hawai‘i residents and visitors forever in varying degrees.

In Hawai‘i they call it “vog,” short for volcanic smog. It’s not a killer, in and of itself. But it has made tens of thousands sick over the years, feeling as if they have pneumonia or a horrible headache or bronchitis. For those with asthma or other respiratory conditions, it’s worse.

Vog, which mainly consists of water vapor, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, can appear as “hazy air pollution.” It can also contain several other compounds such as hydrogen sulfide, hydrogen fluoride and carbon monoxide, all of which are harmful to people, according to the Geological Service. However, of the three primary gases, sulfur dioxide, which has an acrid smell reminiscent of fireworks or a burning match, is the “chief gas hazard in Hawai‘i,” the service reported.

Jennifer Griswold, an assistant professor of Atmospheric Sciences, told KHON-TV in 2017 about her reaction to vog when she first moved to Hawai‘i. “It felt like I had really severe tooth pain, or like I needed a root canal, or like someone was stabbing me in the face,” Griswold said. “I ended up going to a dentist who told me that my sinuses were so inflamed from the vog that they were essentially crushing the nerves of my teeth.”

Lacey Holland, post doctoral researcher in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, talked with KITV about the dangers of sulfur dioxide. Steven Businger, chair of the department, also talked about resulting acid rain with Hawaii News Now.

Read more about it and watch the videos (where available) in the Washington Post, KITV, and Hawaii News Now. Track current conditions at the Vog Measurement and Prediction Project (VMAP).

Experts say expect more floods, more often

Expect more heavy rain, more often, and get ready for even worse from named storms and hurricanes. That’s what experts warn, and they say our infrastructure needs to change to keep up.

Steven Businger, SOEST Atmospheric Sciences Department (ATMO) professor and chair, has seen big storms and floods come and go. He says what used to be rare is becoming more frequent — and all the engineering to withstand it needs to be rethought.

“For those people who were flooded, this past weekend, I feel sorry for them but they can expect that to happen again in the next five years,” Businger said. “There will be another flood. I would say that’s the return period for a storm like this.

It used to be every 10 years, he says.

“We don’t generally design things for a 100 year return period but I think we should. We should start doing that because these floods, unusual floods are becoming more common,” he explains. Why? “The sea surface temperature is warming with climate change, and warmer sea surface leads to a larger amount of water vapor. It pushes water vapor into the air and so the result is storms that produce heavier rain, and that’s been shown all over the world that’s happening.”

“But a much bigger problem is a hurricane,” Businger adds, “because then you’re going to have the flash floods plus the high winds plus the storm surge. If we don’t harden our infrastructure for the possibility of having a hurricane hit Honolulu, then I think we’re doing our society a disservice.”

Read more about it and watch the video at KHON.

Update 04-19-18: Read more about the unpredictability of storms this size in Honolulu Civil Beat, with quotes from ATMO’s Steven Businger and Pao-Shin Chu.

Uncovering the origin of a key weather pattern in the global tropics

SOEST Atmospheric Sciences professor Bin Wang is working to improve the understanding of a globally important atmospheric system, named the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This system has a profound impact on the weather in the tropics, and can even have significant impacts on extreme storm events including those witnessed in the US. While the MJO is a well-documented phenomenon, its origin is still yet to be understood on a scientific level. Wang and his team are building upon existing theories on how it operates, and how to best simulate it in different geographical conditions.

The weather produced by the MJO impacts the tropics as well as the middle latitudes beyond the tropics. It can even have an impact on the magnitude of monsoons and flooding, which can lead to catastrophic results. Researchers such as Wang who are creating increasingly reliable prediction tools, are aiding hazard risk assessment and preparation in countries affected by the MJO.

Atmospheric Sciences and International Pacific Research Center Joint Seminar

Speaker: Bin Wang, Professor, UHM Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

Title: Physical Basis for Subseasonal Prediction: Theoretical Understanding and Modeling MJO

Please bring a cup and join us for coffee, tea, and cookies, 3:00 p.m., MSB courtyard.

Atmospheric Sciences Seminar

Speaker: Yi-Leng Chen, Professor, UHM Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences

Title: Analysis and Simulations of a Heavy Rainfall Event over Northern Taiwan During 11-12 June 2012

Please join us for coffee, tea, and cookies, MSB lanai, 3:00 p.m.

(This seminar was originally scheduled for 1/10/18.)