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Atmospheric Sciences Special Seminar

Presenter:  Michael M. Bell, Associate Professor, Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences, Colorado State University

Title:  Improving Forecasts of Extreme Rainfall: PRECIP 2020

Light refreshments available before the seminar at 2:00 p.m.

Hurricane Lane image from NOAA Environmental Visualization Laboratory

To prepare for a future with stronger hurricanes, Hawai‘i can learn from others — and itself

Hawai‘i should look to other states, other countries and its own past to gain insight on how to harden its buildings and homes and bolster the resiliency of its infrastructure in the face of a warming future that promises more frequent and stronger hurricanes, experts say. The discussion comes as Hawai‘i emergency management officials acknowledge that they must take action now to prepare for the likelihood of an intense hurricane making landfall.

Just last year, Hawai‘i was facing the real possibility of a direct hit from a Category 4 or 5 storm in Hurricane Lane. Luckily, Lane weakened into a tropical storm and stayed south of the islands, but it served as a wake-up call for the state and underscored some its key infrastructure vulnerabilities.The state’s own estimates predict a major hurricane like Lane would all but cripple the islands with a direct hit, causing a total capital economic loss of $116 billion, displacing roughly 240,000 households, generating 8 million tons of debris and resulting in power outages that could take weeks to restore.

And scientists say a warming planet will mean more Hurricane Lanes taking aim at the islands.

Dennis Hwang, coastal hazard mitigation specialist for the UH Sea Grant College Program, is one of the authors of the “Homeowner’s Handbook to Prepare for Natural Disasters.” It provides a wealth of information to help residents prepare for natural disasters, including hurricanes, flooding, tsunamis and earthquakes. The newest edition released this year now includes an entire section focused on threats from climate change.

Hwang, who helps homeowners strengthen their houses for natural disasters — like installing hurricane clips, said a majority of O‘ahu residents don’t understand the risk of a powerful hurricane (like Iniki) because the island hasn’t faced a direct hit yet.

Read more about it and watch the video reports at Hawaii News Now.

Image of sea surface temperature anomalies during the 2015-2016 El Nino event. (NOAA)

Climate warming promises more frequent extreme El Niño events

El Niño events cause serious shifts in weather patterns across the globe, and an important question that scientists have sought to answer is: how will climate change affect the generation of strong El Niño events?

A new study, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science by a team of international climate researchers led by Bin Wang, professor of Atmospheric Sciences and researcher at the International Pacific Research Center (IPRC), answers that question. Results show that since the late 1970’s, climate change effects have shifted the El Niño onset location from the eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and caused more frequent extreme El Niño events. Continued warming over the western Pacific warm pool promises conditions that will trigger more extreme events in the future.

The team examined details of 33 El Niño events from 1901 to 2017, evaluating for each event the onset location of the warming, its evolution and its ultimate strength. By grouping the common developmental features of the events, the team was able to identify four types of El Niño, each with distinct onset and strengthening patterns. Looking across time, they found a decided shift in behavior since the late 1970’s: all events beginning in the eastern Pacific occurred prior to that time, while all events originating in the western-central Pacific happened since then. They also found that four of five identified extreme El Niño events formed after 1970.

Read more about it in the Washington Post, the New York Times, Newsweek, the Weather Channel, Hawaii News Now, Hawaii Trubune-Herald, and the UH System News.

Photo of dry conditions in Upcountry Maui.

Cost of Hawaii’s record-breaking drought reaches millions

Drought has caused millions of dollars’ worth of damage in Hawai‘i in the past 20 years. A particularly severe event from 2007–2014 was especially damaging to ranching in the state. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the average drought causes more than 9 billion dollars’ worth of damage in the U.S. That puts abnormal dryness as the second most costly natural disaster, behind only hurricanes. New analysis from the East West Center in Honolulu shows just how damaging drought can be locally.

Abby Frazier, a geographer at the East West Center specializing in drought research, recently explored the financial cost of a record-breaking drought that lasted from 2007 to 2014. That episode of abnormal dryness was exceptional both in its duration and severity. Frazier characterized the 7 year drought as unprecedented in 100 years of data. “Revenue losses for the ranching industry on the order of about $44.5 million dollars. They lost over 20,000 head of cattle and it’s expected to take another 10 to 14 years to recover fully,” Frazier said.

So what caused the historic drought? It’s difficult to identify any one cause. Weather trends like drought are a complex mix of precipitation, temperature, and global air flow that can be difficult to predict. One contributing factor might be the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, known to be associated with drought conditions in Hawai‘i. While ENSO typically brings dry conditions to Hawai‘i, even a powerful El Niño wouldn’t likely be enough to cause a 7 year drought.

Christina Karamperidou, an assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, says that it would require multiple, back to back El Niño events to create a drought event of that duration. “El Niño events don’t last that long. It’s associated more with the decadal variability that we see in the Pacific.” She added that while there were El Niño events observed during the drought period, none were large enough to have caused such a severe drought.

Read more about it and listen to the report at Hawai‘i Public Radio.

 

Grad admissions ATMO image

Atmospheric Sciences Seminar

Presenter: Randall J. Alliss, Atmospheric Scientist, Northrup Grumman Corp., Mclean, VA

Title: Atmospheric Characterization and Modeling at Haleakala Summit

Please bring a mug and join us for coffee, tea, and cookies, 3:00 p.m., MSB courtyard.

Rough surf hits O‘ahu's Waimea Bay

“No place on the planet” — not even Hawai‘i — to escape climate change, experts say

When it gets cold every winter, Hawai‘i becomes an increasingly popular retreat. But climate experts in the Aloha State told USA TODAY on Monday 11 February that tourists cannot escape climate change – not even on the islands, where 60-foot waves and wind gusts up to 191 mph were part of a fierce weekend storm that downed power lines and felled trees.

“There’s no place on the planet where (people) can expect to see conditions as they have been in the past,” said Chip Fletcher, an Earth Sciences professor, SOEST’s Associate Dean for Academic Affairs, and vice chair of the Honolulu Climate Change Commission.

This weekend’s damaging storm, Fletcher said, is a good example of an extreme weather event that is more likely to occur in a warmer world. Climate change set up the conditions for the extreme waves, as well as what officials said could be the lowest-elevation snowfall ever recorded in the state.

Watch the video and read more about it in USA TODAY. In a related article, read about Hawai‘i’s recent extreme weather in the Washington Post with a quote from Atmospheric Sciences professor Bin Wang regarding “substantial increase in the likelihood of tropical cyclone frequency [in Hawai‘i] … with a northwestward shifting of the tropical cyclone track.”