What will it take to get Hawai‘i to 100% renewable energy?
Credit: David Kovalenko via Unsplash
As the State of Hawai‘i must generate 100 percent of its electricity with renewable energy sources by 2045 per legal mandate, what will it take to electrify the Hawaiian economy with only renewable energy? Researchers at the University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa and other institutions co-authored a report, Assessment of the Scope of Tasks to Completely Phase out Fossil Fuels in Hawaiʻi, to answer that question.
While the State is aiming for 100% renewable electricity generation by 2045, it achieved 31% in 2023. Furthermore, the State consumes nearly nine times more energy than it produces, primarily relying on petroleum, which accounts for 80% of total energy consumption.
“Through producing this report, we found that solar, wind, and batteries on their own will not scale to meet the needs we have,” said Nicole Lautze, report co-author and director of the Hawai‘i Groundwater and Geothermal Resources Center (HGGRC) in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST). “Firm (24/7) power generation, which geothermal offers, will be required for the state to achieve 100% renewable.”
In the report, scenario models assess the electrical power required to electrify the Hawai‘i economy using non-fossil fuel solutions, which include solar, wind, hydro, biomass, nuclear, geothermal and ocean. This analysis aims to stimulate conversation on how the state should prepare for a non-fossil fuel economy.
Economic vulnerability, oil supply unreliability
According to the report’s analysis, Hawai‘i‘s economy is vulnerable to structural instability within the global oil market. As Hawai‘i’s electricity prices are more than double the U.S. average, Hawai‘i’s oil supplies are unreliable in source and price, and the overall global supply is not the only factor in this unreliability. Within ten to twenty years, the report suggests, that reliance on oil should be phased out.
“The State should develop post-fossil fuel energy generation and economic capabilities that do not wholly depend on oil, or petroleum products,” said Peter Sternlicht, one of the report’s co-authors, and board member of Sustainable Energy Hawai‘i.
The report examines the State’s economic activity, using the data from 2019, and evaluated non-fossil fuel solutions including geothermal. For each of them, the report implemented a feasible energy system scenario in Hawai‘i.
“We hope that this comprehensive report provides actionable information that our State can use to develop an effective and efficient transition plan away from fossil fuels and toward a more sustainable and stable energy future,” said Lautze.
Report details
The report includes over 690 pages of analysis and two appendices of supporting details.
HGGRC, Sustainable Energy Hawai‘i, Geological Survey of Finland, and Azimuth Advisory Services co-authored this report, which took three years to produce. The lead author is Simon Michaux (Finland) with co-authors Peter Sternlicht (SEH), Chris Needham, Harald Sverdrup, Nicole Lautze (HGGRC), Daniel Dores (HGGRC), Stanley Osserman, Gary Rosenberg, and Alice Kim (HGGRC).
Read also on Honolulu Civil Beat and UH News.