OCN 780 Seminar | Ecological nowcasts, forecasts, & projections for use in management | Hazen

Ecological nowcasts, forecasts & projections for use in management

Presenter: Dr. Elliott Hazen

Title: Ecological nowcasts, forecasts, & projections for use in management

Predators can serve as ecosystem sentinels, similar to a “canary in the coal mine” portending ecosystem shift or collapse. Just as meteorologists use sophisticated systems to predict weather patterns, storm trajectories, and long-term climate trends to safeguard human lives and minimize financial impacts, I use ecological theory to build a parallel predictive framework for our oceans to ensure sustainable ocean activities while minimizing impacts on protected marine mammals and endangered species. We have built operational nowcasts of species distributions such as WhaleWatch and EcoCast and is developing forecasts to assess entanglement risk for humpback whales in West Coast fisheries. Additionally, we are building century-scale biodiversity predictions to support long-term planning, such as marine protected area design and offshore energy siting. Retrospective analyses have shown that top predators can face up to 30% redistribution of habitat during intense marine heatwaves, yet not all species and heatwaves respond similarly. This adaptable, multi-scale framework offers a comprehensive solution to marine resource management. By enhancing our ability to predict ecological shifts, we can minimize risk, maximize opportunity, and chart a more sustainable future for our oceans in the face of global change.

Location: Zoom,
https://hawaii.zoom.us/j/85737434125

Meeting ID: 857 3743 4125
Passcode: 226233

Time: 3:00 pm to 4:15 pm