Presented on March 22, 2023, by
Dr Nadya Moisseeva
Atmospheric Sciences Department
University of Hawaii at Manoa
Volcanic activity and the associated vog (volcanic smog) emissions into the atmosphere often result in adverse air quality conditions and present a hazard to human health and the environment. Since 2010 the Vog Measurement and Prediction Program at UH Manoa has been dedicated to improving our understanding of vog dispersion and providing the public and emergency responders with accurate and timely forecasts of volcanic air quality in Hawaii. In this talk, I will present the newest version of the VMAP air quality modelling framework for volcanic gas emissions called VogCast. Building on a decade of experience of VMAP researchers, VogCast is designed to simplify ensemble air quality prediction by linking together multiple state-of-art models of meteorology, plume-rise, emissions, and dispersion.
This talk will focus on the application of VogCast to the most recent eruption of Maunaloa in December 2022. We will discuss the unique challenges associated with modeling this event and how it differed from typical eruptive activity at Kilauea. Using remotely sensed data, I will demonstrate the strengths and limitations of the VogCast framework, and highlight the key steps to improving forecast accuracy. Lastly, I’ll briefly touch on VMAP’s current modelling and observational efforts aimed at improving our understanding of vog dispersion in Hawaii.
Nadya Moisseeva is a postdoctoral researcher at the Vog Measurement and Prediction Program at UH Manoa. She joined VMAP in 2021 after finishing her doctoral work at the University of British Columbia under Prof. Roland Stull. Her PhD focused on high-resolution numerical and analytical modelling of wildfire smoke plumes, atmospheric dynamics, air quality and turbulence. Currently, her main research interest is in developing multi-scale (turbulence-resolving to mesoscale) air quality simulations in complex terrain to help characterize vog dispersion in Hawaii.