I watched the show, "Sightings", on the Sci-Fi channel. There was a story about someone from the University of Hawaii who could predict earthquakes, and I would like more information. Do you have an e-mail address? If so, could you please send it to me?
Nobody at the University of Hawaii predicts earthquakes. The person on
"Sightings" was Michael Lee, a teacher of religion and history at
Damien High School in Honolulu.
I am convinced that Mr. Lee's predictions have no merit. His basic idea
is that an earthquake occurs sometime after the passage of a lunar
eclipse in the area from which the eclipse is visible. The trouble is
that the areas involved are huge, and his prediction windows last for
as long as sixteen days after an eclipse. Since the Earth has about ten
earthquakes of greater than magnitude 5 every day, Lee's technique is
guaranteed to "predict" a large number of earthquakes, regardless of
whether there is actually a link between earthquakes and eclipses. Lee
claims a success rate of 40%. 40% seems impressive, until you realize
that if you chose locations completely at random (instead of being
guided by eclipses) but otherwise followed his procedure, you would
also get a 40% hit rate. In other words, Mr. Lee's predictions are no
better than completely random guesses. In saying this, however, I do
not mean to imply that Mr. Lee is in any way insincere; I am sure he
is convinced that his method works.
You can make up your own mind after visiting
Mr. Lee's earthquake prediction web page
Gerard Fryer
Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology
University of Hawaii, Honolulu HI 96822
Note from the editor: The comments of our expert are not a general indictment against the Sci-Fi channel, the television program "Sightings" or Mr. Lee. Rather, they point out flaws in the logic of this prediction technique. Mr. Lee points out at his web site that he has a "prefered" method based upon the much less frequent occurrence of solar eclipses, which is not addressed here.
Return to the Ask-An-Earth-Scientist © page