Geophy. Res. Let. ,

Why Do ENSO Cycles Turn Around in Boreal Winter?

Bin WANG

Renguang Wu and Roger Lukas
School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawaii


The reversal of warming or cooling trends of ENSO cycles occurs most frequently toward the end of calendar year. We show evidences that prior to the peaks of major warm (cold) episodes, an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) over Philippine Sea rapidly establishes. Associated anomalous easterlies (westerlies) prevail in the equatorial western Pacific which, by forcing oceanic Kelvin waves, provide a negative feedback to the eastern Pacific warming (cooling). The rapid development and persistence of the Philippine Sea wind anomalies result from interaction between /atmospheric Rossby waves and ocean mixed layer thermodynamics. This interaction critically depends on the existence of boreal cold season mean circulations. Therefore, the negative feedback proposed here favors the turnaround of ENSO cycles in boreal winter.

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