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School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology
Axel Timmermann

Associate Professor

Department of Oceanography, 
University of Hawai`i at Manoa, 
1000 Pope Road, 
Marine Sciences Building, 
Honolulu, HI 96822
Phone: (808) 956-2720
Fax: (808) 956-9225


Chair of the International CLIVAR Pacific panel

For further information, click here


  • BS 1992  -  Physics, University of Marburg
  • MS 1995 -  Physics, University of Marburg.
  • Ph.D 1998 -  Meteorology, Max Planck Institute of Meteorology, Hamburg

Research Interests

  • ENSO theory
  • Glacial-Interglacial transitions
  • Biogeochemical modeling
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Predictability of climate variations
  • Abrupt climate change
  • Dynamics of the thermohaline circulation
  • Coral bleaching and anthropogenic climate change
  • Lake Kauhako

Refereed Publications

1. Timmermann, A., F.-F. Jin, S.I. An, and A. Natarov, 2006: Weathering of ENSO supercriticality, in preparation.
2. Menviel-Hessler, L., A. Timmermann, O. Timm, 2006: An intermediate model assessment of the glacial overdue hypothesis, Geophys. Res. Lett. , submitted.
3. U. Krebs, A. Timmermann, 2006: Tropical air-sea coupling stabilizes the meridional overturning circulation, in preparation.
4. M. Heinemann, A. Timmermann and U. Feudel, 2006: Interactions between marine biology and the El Nino-Southern Oscillation: a conceptual model analysis, in preparation.
5. F.-F. Jin, L. Lin, A. Timmermann, J. Zhao, 2006: Ensemble-mean dynamics of the ENSO Recharge Oscillator under modulated, state-dependent stochastic forcing, Geophys. Res. Lett., submitted.
6. Y. Okumura, S.-P. Xie, A. Timmermann, 2006: Improved prediction of Northeast Brazil rainfall anomalies, in preparation.
7. A. Timmermann, Y. Okumura, S.-I. An, A. Clement, B. Dong, E. Guilyardi, A. Hu, J. Jungclaus, U. Krebs, M. Renold, T.F. Stocker, R.J. Stouffer, R. Sutton, S.-P. Xiew and J. Yin, 2006: The influence of shutdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO, in preparation.
8. Timm, O., A. Timmermann, 2006: Simulation of the last 21,000 years using accelerated transient boundary conditions, J. Climate, submitted.
9. Timmermann, A., O. Timm and L. Stott, L. Menviel, 2006, Why did Antarctica warm 20,000 years ago?, submitted.
10. Goosse, H., O. Arzel, J, Luterbacher, M. E. Mann, H. Renssen, N. Riedwyl, A. Timmermann, E. Xoplaki and H. Wanner, 2006: The Origin of the "European Medieval Warm Period", Climate of the Past, submitted.
11. Krebs, U., A. Timmermann, 2006: Fast advective recovery of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation after a Heinrich event, Paleoceanography, submitted.
12. Timmermann, A., and S. Lorenz, S.I. An, A. Clement, S.-P. Xie, 2006: , Generation of precessional cycles in tropical climate, J. Climate, submitted.
13. S.-I. An, J.S. Kug, A. Timmermann, I.S. Kang, 2006: The influence of ENSO on the generation of decadal variability in the North Pacific, J. Climate submitted.
14. H. Goosse, H. Renssen, A. Timmermann, R.S. Bradley and M.E. Mann, 2006: Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select an optimal realisation in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium, Climate Dynamics, DOI 10.1007/s00382-006-0128-6.
15. F. Justino, A. Timmermann, U. Merkel and R.W. Peltier, 2006: An initial intercomparison of atmospheric and oceanic climatology for the ICE-5G and ICE-4G models of LGM paleotopography, J. Climate, 19, 3-14.
16. Reuning, L., J. Rejmer, C. Betzler, A. Timmermann, S. Steph 2005: Sub-Milankovitch cycles in periplatform carbonates from the early Pliocene Great Bahama Bank, Paleoceanography, PA 1017, doi: 10.1029/2004PA001075.
17. Timmermann, A., S.-I. An, U. Krebs, H. Goosse 2005: ENSO suppression due to weakening of the North Atlantic thermohaline circulation, J. Climate 18, 3122-3139.
18. Timmermann, A. U. Krebs, F. Justino, H. Goosse, T. Ivanochko, 2005: Mechanisms for millennial-scale global synchronization during the last glacial period , Paleoceanography, 20 (4), PA4008, doi: 10.1029/2004PA00109.
19. Justino, F., and A. Timmermann 2005: Synoptic Reorganization of large-scale atmospheric flow during the Last Glacial Maximum. J. Climate 18, 2826-2846.
20. Goosse, H., H. Renssen, A. Timmermann, and R. Bradley 2005: Natural and forced climate variability during the last millennium: implications for model-data comparison. Quaternary Science Reviews, 24, 1345-1360.
21. Schulz, M., A. Paul, and A. Timmermann 2004: Glacial-Interglacial Contrast in Climate Variability at Centennial-to-Millennial Timescales: Observations and Conceptual Model. Quaternary Science Reviews, 23, 2219-2230.
22. Abshagen, J., and A. Timmermann 2004: An Organizing Center for Thermohaline Excitability, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 34, 2756-2760.
23. An, S.-I., A. Timmermann, L. Bejarano, F.-F. Jin, F. Justino. Z. Liu, and S. Tudhope(2004): ENSO dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum. Paleocanography, 19, PA4009, doi:10.1029/2004PA001020.
24. Marzeion, B., A. Timmermann, R. Murtugudde, and F.-F. Jin 2004: Bio-physical feedbacks in the tropical Pacific. J. Climate, Journal of Climate, 18, 58-70.
25. Timmermann, A., F.B. Justino, F.-F. Jin, and H. Goosse 2004: Surface temperature control in the North and tropical Pacific during the last glacial maximum. Climate Dynamics, 23, 353-370.
26. A.J. Gamez, C.S. Zhou, A. Timmermann, and J. Kurths 2004: Nonlinear dimensionality reduction in climate data, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 11, 393-398.
27. Eden, C., and A. Timmermann, 2004: The influence of the Galapagos Islands on tropical temperatures, currents and the generation of tropical instability waves. Geophys. Res. Lett., 21, 10.120/2004GL200600.
28. Knutti, R., J. Flueckiger, T.F. Stocker, and A. Timmermann, 2004: Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through continental freshwater discharge and ocean circulation. Nature, 430, 851-856.
29. Timmermann, A., and H. Goosse, 2004: Is the wind-stress forcing essential for the meridional overturning circulation? Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L04303, doi: 10.1029/2003GL01877.
30. Timmermann, A., F.-F. Jin, and M. Collins, 2004: Intensification of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific due to Greenhouse Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 31, L12208, doi: 10.1029/2004GL019442.
31. Jin, F.-F., S.I. An, A. Timmermann, and X. Zhang, 2003: Strong El Nino events and nonlinear dynamical heating, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, doi:10.1029/2002GL016356.
32. Miller, A.J., M.A. Alexander, G.J. Boer, F. Chai, K. Denman, D.J. Erickson, R. Frouin, A.J. Gabric, E.A. Laws, M.R. Lewis, Z. Liu, R. Murtugudde, S. Nakamoto, D.J. Neilson, J.R. Norris, J.C. Ohlmann, R.I. Perry, N. Schneider, K.M. Shell, and A. Timmermann, 2003: Potential feedbacks between Pacific Ocean ecosystems and interdecadal climate variations. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 84, 617-633.
33. Timmermann, A., 2003: Decadal ENSO Amplitude Modulations: A Nonlinear Mechanism. Global Planet. Changes, 135-156.
34. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin, 2003: A Nonlinear Theory for El Nino Bursting. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 152-165.
35. Timmermann, A., M. Schulz, H. Gildor, and E. Tziperman, 2003: Coherent Resonant millennial-scale climate transitions triggered by massive meltwater pulses. J. Climate, 16 (15), 2569-2585.
36. Pasmanter, R., and A. Timmermann, 2002: Cyclic Markov Chains with an Application to an intermediate ENSO model. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 10, 197-210.
37. Schulz, M., A. Timmermann, and A. Paul, 2002: Relaxation oscillators in concert: A conceptual framework for late Pleistocene millennial-scale climate variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2193, doi: 10.1029/2002GL016144.
38. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin, 2002: A Nonlinear Mechanism for Decadal El Nino Amplitude Changes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 10.1029/2001GL013369.
39. Timmermann, A., and F.-F. Jin, 2002: Phytoplankton influences on tropical climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, doi: 10.10129/2002GL15434.
40. Monahan, A.H., A. Timmermann, and G. Lohmann, 2001: Comments on "Noise-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation." J. Phys. Oceanogr., 32, 1112-1116.
41. Timmermann, A., 2001: Changes of ENSO stability due to Greenhouse Warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 2064-2066.
42. Timmermann, A., H. Voss, and R. Pasmanter, 2001: Empirical Dynamical System Modeling of ENSO using Nonlinear Inverse Techniques. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 1579-1598.
43. Contributing Author of "Projections Future Climate Change," in Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, 2001.
44. Contributing Author, " Physical Climate Processes and Feedbacks" in Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, 2001.
45. Contributing Author, "Observed Climate Variability and Change" in Third Assessment Report, IPCC, Climate Change: The Scientific Basis, 2001.
46. Hoegh-Guldberg, O., H. Hoegh-Guldberg, D.K. Stout, H. Cesar, and A. Timmermann, 2000: Pacific in Peril: Biological, Economic and Social Impacts of Climate Change on Pacific Coral Reefs. Greenpeace report. ISBN 1876221100.
47. Gratzner, A., M. Latif, A. Timmermann, and R. Voss, 1999: Interannual to Decadal Predictability in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Model. J. Climate, 12, 2607-2624.
48. Timmermann, A., 1999: Detecting the Nonstationary Response of ENSO to Greenhouse Warming. J. Atmos. Sci., 56, 2313-2325.
49. Timmermann, A., and M. Latif, 1999: Modes of Climate Variability as simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM3/LSG, Part I: ENSO-like climate variability, Clim. Dyn., 15, 605-618.
50. Timmermann, A., M. Latif, A. Bacher, J. Oberhuber, and E. Roeckner, 1999: Increased El Nino frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature, 398, 694-696.
51. Timmermann, A., and G. Lohmann, 1999: Noise-Induced Transitions in a simplified model of the thermohaline circulation, J. Phys. Oceanogr., 30, 1891-1900.
52. Timmermann, A., M. Latif , R.Voss, and A. Gratzner, 1998: Northern Hemispheric Interdecadal Variability: A coupled Air-Sea Mode. J. Climate, 11, 1906-1931.
53. Arbex, N., M. Pluemer, U. Ornik, A. Timmermann, and R.M. Weiner, 1995: Thermal photon production in heavy ion collisions. Phys. Lett., B345, 307-312.
54. Timmermann, A., M. Pluemer, L.V. Razumov, and R.M. Weiner, 1994: Photon Interferometry of quark-gluon dynamics reexamined. Phys.Review, C50 (6), 3060.


Department of Oceanography
Last modified: July 2006