IPRC Tsunami Debris Models
IPRC Model Tracks Lighter Tsunami Debris
Honolulu, August 3, 2012
The IPRC model that tracks the tsunami debris across the Pacific now reflects the effects of wind on the movement of debris with varying fractions of surface above water. Nikolai Maximenko and Jan Hafner have added five additional windage levels to the original model, which is based on data from scientific drifting buoys with drogues at 15 meters deep.
Items with high windage (levels 04 and 05) could have arrived on the West Coast by the end of 2011. Read more.
To view the animations of individual and combined windages see table below.
Windage Percentage |
Latest Map |
Movie as gif |
Movie as avi |
Combined |
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0% |
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01% |
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02% |
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03% |
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04% |
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05% |
The Original Zero-Windage Model
The zero-windage debris field from daily winds and sea level height
The orginal model was developed from paths of drifters with 15-m deep drogues and mostly driven by currents. Debris with a large fraction above the water is driven by both wind and currents and is far in advance of the debris cloud shown on this map. The purple does NOT reflect density, but only the REGION in which debris is likely to be present. The items are now widely dispersed. Very little is known about how much remains afloat. To view latest map. To see animation as gif ; as avi.
The 15-year projections of the zero-windage debris field from statistical model.