MET 416 Meteorological Analysis and Forecasting Spring Semester 2011

FORECAST CONTEST

The following details the MET416 forecast contest and the formulas by which the forecast will be scored. Forecasts for Miami Beach, Florida and Honolulu, Hawaii should be made every Tuesday and Thursday valid for the next day. Please complete the game forecast enclosed in your UH Manoa MET416 path folder before 6:00p.m. computer (local HST) time on the day of the forecast. The goal of the contest is to have the lowest score possible.

1. MIAMI BEACH, FLORIDA (KMIA)

We will be forecasting the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum daily wind speed, and rainfall category for Miami Beach, FL. Verification of all variables will be done through the NWS daily climate report for the Miami International AirportNational Weather Service Daily Climate Report: Miami Beach, Florida. You can view the current conditions at KMIA here National Weather Service Current Conditions: Miami Beach, Florida You can view the hourly observations at KMIA here National Weather Service Hourly Observations: Miami Beach, Florida

PRECIPITATION

Total precipitation amount for the 24 hour period beginning at 8am local time: On a MET416 Tuesday forecast, the precipitation period would run from 8am Wednesday morning to 8am Thursday morning, local KMIA time. The forecast will be made in categories. Verification will be as follows:
These are the rainfall categories - but you can use any whole integer number (e.g. 3)
Cat. 0 0.00 inches
Cat. 1 trace inches
Cat. 2 0.01 - 0.09 inches
Cat. 4 0.10 - 0.24 inches
Cat. 6 0.25 - 0.49 inches
Cat. 8 0.50 - 0.99 inches
Cat. 10 1.00 + inches
Error points will be calculated by taking the square of the difference between the verification and your forecast of precipitation chance.

2. HONOLULU, HAWAII (HNL)

We will be forecasting the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, maximum daily wind speed, and rainfall category for Honolulu.
These are the rainfall categories - but you can use any whole integer number (e.g. 3)
Cat. 0 0.00 inches
Cat. 1 trace inches
Cat. 2 0.01 - 0.09 inches
Cat. 4 0.10 - 0.24 inches
Cat. 6 0.25 - 0.49 inches
Cat. 8 0.50 - 0.99 inches
Cat. 10 1.00 + inches

The HNL wind is the maximum surface wind speed recorded at the airport and is scored the same way as the other city. The scores will be posted regularly by the "handle" or nickname you used for your first 'initialized' forecast (i.e. the one you entered to run "./game.sh").

Verification

For verification data we will use Honolulu airport for temperature and wind, and the Manoa Arbortorium for precipitation. For temperatures and wind the period is midnight to midnight. For rainfall the period is 8:00 a.m. (tomorrow morning) to 8:00 a.m. (the next morning). Temperature and wind data will come from the National Weather Service Climatology report.



Forecasts and Scoring

Your forecast should be made every Tuesday and Thursday valid for the next day. Please complete your forecast before 6:00 p.m. (computer time). Since you have MET416 on Tuesdays and Thursdays, it would be easiest for everyone if you complete your forecast during, or just after that class. All forecasts must be in by 6:00 PM the day the forecast is made (generally before you leave MET416).

If your forecast is missing, you will receive an error forecast. This error forecast is generated by taking the values of your last forecast and applying them to the missing forecast. So, in a sense, this is applying a persistance error forecast.
Late forecasts will be dealt with on an individual basis.
Submit your forecast using the forecast game file enclosed in your MET416 path folder. You will play the forecast game twice a week, once on Tuesday, once on Thursday.

To play the game,

1. make sure you are in your MET416 path folder and "Uila"

2. enter the following in quotes to begin game "./game.sh".

3. The gamefile will then ask for today's date before you begin entering your forecasted values for temperature, wind, and precipitation for both stations (Miami Beach, FL and Honolulu, HI).

4. If done properly, the forecast game will re-display your total forecast upon completion. You are now done with your forecast for the day!


Summary

Forecast 24 hour high and low for both cities.
Forecast 24 maximum surface wind speed for both cities.
Wind speeds are in knots.
Forecast precipitation amounts for both cities using the precipitation categories given above.



A low score is better!
Questions, comments, and disputes should be directed to Brandon Bukunt (bbukunt@hawaii.edu). The decision of the forecast director is final.
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