Pao-Shin Chu's Home Page

Pao-Shin Chu

Professor/ Graduate Chair and State Climatologist

Department of Meteorology

School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology

University of Hawaii at Monoa

Honolulu, Hawaii 96822

Email: chu@hawaii.edu

Phone: (808)956-2567

Fax: (808)956-2877

Research Interests

Climate Prediction and Predictability:

Kim, H.S., C.-H. Ho, P.-S. Chu, and J.-H. Kim, 2009: Seasonal prediction of summertime tropical cyclone activity over the East China Sea using the least absolute deviation regression and the Poisson regression. Int. J. Climatol., in press.

Ho, C.-H., H.-S. Kim, and P.-S. Chu, 2009: Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency over the east China Sea through a Bayesian Poisson-regression method. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 45, 45-54.

Chu, P.-S., Zhao X., C.-T. Lee, and M.-M. Lu2007: Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method.Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 18, 805-825.

Chu, P.-S., and Zhao X., 2007: A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 20, 4002-4012.

Chu, P.-S., 1998: Short-term climate prediction of Mei-Yu rainfall for Taiwan using CCA. Int. J. Climatol.,18, 215- 224.

Yu, Z.-P., P.-S, Chu and T.A. Schroeder, 1997: Predictive skills of seasonal to annual rainfall variations in the U.S. affiliated Pacific islands: Canonical correlation and multivariate principal component regression approaches. J. Climate, 10, 2586-2599.

Chu, P.-S., R.W. Katz, and P. Ding, 1995: Modeling and forecasting seasonal precipitation in Florida: A vector time-domain approach. Int. J. Climatol., 15, 53-64.

Chu, P.-S. and Y. He, 1994: Long-range prediction of Hawaiian Winter rainfall using canonical correlation analysis. Int. J. Climatol.,14, 659-669.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1989: Spectral estimation from time series models with relevance to the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 86-90.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1987: Measures of predictability with application to the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1542-1549.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1985: Modeling and forecasting the Southern Oscillation: A time-domain approach. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1876-1888.

Climate Varibility and Tropical Cyclones:

Zhao, X., and P.-S. Chu, 2009: Bayesian change-point analysis of extreme events (Typhoons, Heavy Rainfall, and Heat Waves): A RJMCMC approach. J. Climate, in press.

Tu J.Y , Chou C , P.-S. Chu, 2009: The abrupt shift of typhoon activity in the vicinity of Taiwan and its association with western North Pacific-East Asian climate change, J. Climate, 22, 3617-3628.

Chu, P.-S. and Wu P, 2008: Climatic Atlas of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Central North Pacific. University of Hawaii, Department of Meteorology

Wu, P., and P.-S. Chu, 2007: Characteristics of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific: The extremely active 1992 and the inactive 1977. Tellus A, 59, 444-454.

Zhao X., and P.-S. Chu. 2006: Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Analysis of Hurricane Activity in the Eastern North Pacific: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach. J. Climate, 19, 564-578.

Chu, P.-S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Potential. R. J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 297-332.

Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao, 2004: Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: The Central North Pacific case. J. Climate, 17, 4893-4901.

Chu, P.-S. 2002: Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2678-2689. J. Climate, 17, 4893-4901.

Clark, J.D., and P.-S. Chu, 2002: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity in the central North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80-3,403-418.

Chu, P.-S., and J.D. Clark, 1999: Decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1875-1881.

Chu, P.-S. and J. X.Wang, 1997: Tropical cyclone occurrences in the vicinity of Hawaii: Are the differences between El Nino and non-El Nino years significant? J. Climate, 10, 2683-2689.

Climate Variability and Hawaii rainfall (drought):

Maui_Drought_workshop_08.ppt

Chu, P.-S., and H. Chen, 2005: Interannual and interdecadal rainfall variations in the Hawaiian Islands. J. Climate, 18, 4796-4813.

Chu, P.-S., 1995: Hawaii rainfall anomalies and El Nino. J. Climate, 8, 1697-1703.

Chu, P.-S., A.J. Nash, and F. Porter, 1993: Diagnostic studies of two contrasting rainfall episodes in Hawaii: Dry 1981 and Wet 1982. J. Climate, 6, 1457-1462.

Chu, P.-S., 1989: Hawaiian drought and the Southern Oscillation.Int.J. Climatol., 9, 619-631.

Climate Variability and Wildland fire:

Dolling, K., P.-S. Chu, and F. Fujioka, 2009: Natural variability of Keetch/Byram drought index in the Hawaiian Islands. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 18, 459-475.

Dolling, K., P.-S. Chu, and F. Fujioka, 2005: A climatological study of the Keetch/Byram drought index and fire activity in the Hawaiian Islands. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 133, 17-27.

Chu, P.-S., W. Yan, and F. Fujioka, 2002: Fire-climate relationships and long-lead wildfire prediction for Hawaii. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 25-31.

Climate Change:

Zveryaev, I.I., and Chu, P.-S., 2003: Recent climate changes in precipitable water in the global tropics as revealed in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. J.Geophys. Res., 108, D10, 4311-4322.

Chu, P.-S. and J.-B. Wang, 1997: Recent climate change in the tropical western Pacific and Indian ocean regions as detected by outgoing longwave radiation records. J. Climate, 10, 636-646.

Chu, P.-S., Z.-P. Yu, and S. Hastenrath, 1994: Detecting climate change concurrent with deforestation in the Amazon basin: Which way has it gone? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 579-583.

Statistical analyses of extreme events:

Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao, Y. Ruan, and M. Grubbs, 2009: Extreme rainfall events in the Hawaiian Islands. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 502-516.

Md. Rashed Chowdhury, P.-S. Chu, Thomas A. Schroeder and Xin Zhao, 2008: Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands--a knowledge base for coastal hazards management. J. Coast. Conserv., 12,93-104.

Chu, P.-S. and J.X. Wang, 1998: Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 951-960.

Computer Code

Detection of Multiple Changepoints in a Time Series by RJMCMC Code

Link

Hawaii State Climte Office

Department of Meteorology University of Hawaii at Manoa

National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)

Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC)

National Weather Service (NWS)

American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)

Pao-Shin Chu's Home Page

Pao-Shin Chu

Research Interests

Climate Prediction and Predictability:

Ho, C.-H., H.-S. Kim, and P.-S. Chu, 2009: Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone frequency over the east China Sea through a Bayesian Poisson-regression method. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 45, 45-54.

Chu, P.-S., Zhao X., C.-T. Lee, and M.-M. Lu2007: Climate prediction of tropical cyclone activity in the vicinity of Taiwan using the multivariate least absolute deviation regression method.Terr. Atmos. Ocean. Sci., 18, 805-825.

Chu, P.-S., and Zhao X., 2007: A Bayesian regression approach for predicting seasonal tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 20, 4002-4012.

Chu, P.-S., 1998: Short-term climate prediction of Mei-Yu rainfall for Taiwan using CCA. Int. J. Climatol.,18, 215- 224.

Yu, Z.-P., P.-S, Chu and T.A. Schroeder, 1997: Predictive skills of seasonal to annual rainfall variations in the U.S. affiliated Pacific islands: Canonical correlation and multivariate principal component regression approaches. J. Climate, 10, 2586-2599.

Chu, P.-S., R.W. Katz, and P. Ding, 1995: Modeling and forecasting seasonal precipitation in Florida: A vector time-domain approach. Int. J. Climatol., 15, 53-64.

Chu, P.-S. and Y. He, 1994: Long-range prediction of Hawaiian Winter rainfall using canonical correlation analysis. Int. J. Climatol.,14, 659-669.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1989: Spectral estimation from time series models with relevance to the Southern Oscillation. J. Climate, 2, 86-90.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1987: Measures of predictability with application to the Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115, 1542-1549.

Chu, P.-S. and R.W. Katz, 1985: Modeling and forecasting the Southern Oscillation: A time-domain approach. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 1876-1888.

Climate Varibility and Tropical Cyclones:

Zhao, X., and P.-S. Chu, 2009: Bayesian change-point analysis of extreme events (Typhoons, Heavy Rainfall, and Heat Waves): A RJMCMC approach. J. Climate, in press.

Wu, P., and P.-S. Chu, 2007: Characteristics of tropical cyclone activity over the eastern North Pacific: The extremely active 1992 and the inactive 1977. Tellus A, 59, 444-454.

Zhao X., and P.-S. Chu. 2006: Bayesian Multiple Changepoint Analysis of Hurricane Activity in the Eastern North Pacific: A Markov Chain Monte Carlo Approach. J. Climate, 19, 564-578.

Chu, P.-S., 2004: ENSO and tropical cyclone activity. Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present, and Potential. R. J. Murnane and K.-B. Liu, Eds., Columbia University Press, 297-332.

Chu, P.-S., and X. Zhao, 2004: Bayesian change-point analysis of tropical cyclone activity: The Central North Pacific case. J. Climate, 17, 4893-4901.

Chu, P.-S. 2002: Large-scale circulation features associated with decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific. J. Climate, 15, 2678-2689. J. Climate, 17, 4893-4901.

Clark, J.D., and P.-S. Chu, 2002: Interannual variation of tropical cyclone activity in the central North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 80-3,403-418.

Chu, P.-S., and J.D. Clark, 1999: Decadal variations of tropical cyclone activity over the central North Pacific.Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 1875-1881.

Chu, P.-S. and J. X.Wang, 1997: Tropical cyclone occurrences in the vicinity of Hawaii: Are the differences between El Nino and non-El Nino years significant? J. Climate, 10, 2683-2689.

Climate Variability and Hawaii rainfall (drought):

Chu, P.-S., 1995: Hawaii rainfall anomalies and El Nino. J. Climate, 8, 1697-1703.

Chu, P.-S., A.J. Nash, and F. Porter, 1993: Diagnostic studies of two contrasting rainfall episodes in Hawaii: Dry 1981 and Wet 1982. J. Climate, 6, 1457-1462.

Chu, P.-S., 1989: Hawaiian drought and the Southern Oscillation.Int.J. Climatol., 9, 619-631.

Climate Variability and Wildland fire:

Chu, P.-S., W. Yan, and F. Fujioka, 2002: Fire-climate relationships and long-lead wildfire prediction for Hawaii. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 25-31.

Climate Change:

Zveryaev, I.I., and Chu, P.-S., 2003: Recent climate changes in precipitable water in the global tropics as revealed in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. J.Geophys. Res., 108, D10, 4311-4322.

Chu, P.-S. and J.-B. Wang, 1997: Recent climate change in the tropical western Pacific and Indian ocean regions as detected by outgoing longwave radiation records. J. Climate, 10, 636-646.

Chu, P.-S., Z.-P. Yu, and S. Hastenrath, 1994: Detecting climate change concurrent with deforestation in the Amazon basin: Which way has it gone? Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 75, 579-583.

Statistical analyses of extreme events:

Chu, P.-S., X. Zhao, Y. Ruan, and M. Grubbs, 2009: Extreme rainfall events in the Hawaiian Islands. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 502-516.

Md. Rashed Chowdhury, P.-S. Chu, Thomas A. Schroeder and Xin Zhao, 2008: Variability and predictability of sea-level extremes in the Hawaiian and U.S.-Trust Islands--a knowledge base for coastal hazards management. J. Coast. Conserv., 12,93-104.

Chu, P.-S. and J.X. Wang, 1998: Modeling return periods of tropical cyclone intensities in the vicinity of Hawaii. J. Appl. Meteor., 37, 951-960.