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90-Day Index
Official 90-day outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 3pm Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates. |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY OCT 18 2001
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV 2001
. . . . . . . .
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE SOME 0.5 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS... ALTHOUGH A LARGE AREA OF WARM WATER... AS MUCH AS
2.0 C ABOVE NORMAL... HAS SLOWLY DEVELOPED NORTH AND WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
IN AND OF ITSELF THIS WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL AIR TEMPS ESPECIALLY
AT HILO. HOWEVER... THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED TO BE AS COOL
LATELY AS THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. PRECIPITATION FORECAST
INDICATIONS ARE GENERALLY WEAK OR NON EXISTENT... THUS GIVING CL AT ALL FOUR
STATIONS.
NOTE OF CAUTION: THE 1971-00 CLIMATOLOGICAL BASE PERIOD MEAN AND TERCILE
MONTHLY PRECIPITATION DATA GIVEN IN THE TABLE BELOW FOR THE FOUR STATIONS MAY
NOT BE EXACTLY CORRECT YET AT ALL FOUR LOCATIONS. THE TEMPERATURE DATA HAVE
BEEN CHECKED AND ARE NOW BELIEVED TO BE CORRECT.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO CL 74.2 0.4 CL 8.7 12.9 17.9
KAHULUI N4 76.1 0.6 CL 1.0 1.9 2.2
HONOLULU CL 77.4 0.7 CL 0.6 0.9 1.5
LIHUE N2 75.8 0.5 CL 2.0 3.2 5.1
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOV-DEC-JAN 2001 TO NOV-DEC-JAN 2002
. . . . . . . .
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND
GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - WITH A
SUGGESTION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES
OVER THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BY SPRING 2002. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO
ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT A CONSENSUS OF THE CURRENT BELOW
NORMAL SSTS SURROUNDING THE ISLANDS AND THE CCA - OCN - AND COUPLED MODEL TOOLS
WHICH GAVE MOSTLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL INDICATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COUPLED
MODEL WHICH GAVE BELOW NORMAL AT SOME OF THE EARLY LEADS. DUE TO THESE EITHER
WEAK OR CONTRADICTORY INDICATIONS - ONLY CL IS FORECAST AT THE EARLY LEADS.
FOR INTERMEDIATE LEADS OCN IS THE MAIN TOOL ESPECIALLY AT HONOLULU - WHICH IS
THE ONLY LOCATION CONSIDERED TO SHOW A USEFUL SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
CL. AT THE LONGEST LEADS THE SIGNALS BECOME WEAK AGAIN - SO CL IS FORECAST.
THERE IS LITTLE SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES IN ANY OF THE TOOLS AT ANY OF THE LEADS - SO CL IS GIVEN THROUGHOUT.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5%
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2001 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.4 CL 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2002 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2002 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4
NDJ 2002 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7
OND 2002 CL 74.2 0.4 CL 26.1 33.1 41.3
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2001 CL 73.8 0.5 CL 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2002 CL 72.5 0.5 CL 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2002 CL 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2002 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2002 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6
OND 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7
DJF 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2002 A5 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2002 A4 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2002 A4 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2002 A3 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2002 A2 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2002 CL 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2002 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2002 CL 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9
NDJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7
OND 2002 CL 77.3 0.5 CL 4.5 6.2 8.4
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
NDJ 2001 CL 73.6 0.3 CL 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2002 A3 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2002 A2 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2002 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2002 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2002 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2
OND 2002 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY NOVEMBER 15 2001.
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED
EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 OUTLOOK RELEASE.
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