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90-Day Index
Official 90-day outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 3pm Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates. |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY DECEMBER 14 2000
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JANUARY 2001
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND LA NINA ATMO-
SPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC. ANOMALIES IN THE PACIFIC ARE AROUND -1.0 DEGREES C ALONG THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 150W AND 180W AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR JANUARY.
THE SSTS AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAIN COOLER THAN
NORMAL - AS THEY HAVE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE LA NINA EVENT. THE CCA
SUPPORTS COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR HILO. HOWEVER ANOMALIES ARE CLOSER TO
ZERO TOWARDS THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS AND SUGGEST CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE CHAIN
SINCE THE CCA CALLS FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL THERE.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B5 71.7 0.5 CL 4.8 7.5 11.1
KAHULUI N3 71.7 0.6 B5 2.0 3.1 4.6
HONOLULU CL 72.8 0.6 B5 1.6 2.6 4.0
LIHUE CL 71.6 0.7 B5 3.4 4.9 6.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JAN-FEB-MAR 2001 TO JAN-FEB-MAR 2002
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SSTS AND GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL -
AND BECOME POSITIVE BY AMJ 2001. BELOW NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES
PREDICTED AT HILO THROUGH FMA 2001 REFLECT THE CCA FORECAST AND ARE
TYPICAL OF THE LAGGED RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HAWAIIAN TEMPERATURES AND
ENSO. WITH LOCAL SST ANOMALIES EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO ZERO NEAR THE
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS - CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABLITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED AT LIHUE AND HONOLULU. ENSO SHOULD BE NEUTRAL BY EARLY
NEXT YEAR AND WITH THE TOOLS PRODUCING WEAK AND CONTRADICTORY
FORECASTS - CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN AT ALL LOCATIONS
PAST AMJ 2001 EXCEPT FOR HONOLULU FOR MJJ AND JJA BASED ON THE OCN
SIGNAL THERE. INDICATIONS FROM THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE VERY WEAK
TO ABSENT.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5%
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2001 B3 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 2001 B2 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 2001 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 2001 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 2001 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 2001 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 2001 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.8 34.0 42.2
DJF 2002 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2001 N2 72.1 0.5 B2 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 2001 N2 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 2001 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 2001 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 2001 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 2001 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 2001 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 2001 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 2001 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 2001 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 2002 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2001 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 2001 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 2001 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 2001 A2 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 2001 A2 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 2001 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 2001 CL 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 2001 CL 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 2001 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 2001 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 2002 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 2002 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JFM 2001 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 2001 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 2001 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 2001 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 2001 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 2002 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY JANUARY 18 2001.
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