Figure 1. Sea-surface temperature (SST) forecasts from the NCEP coupled model (Ji et al. 1998, Mon Wea. Rev., 126, 1022-1034) for the Niña 3.4 region (170ºW-120ºW) of the Central Pacific versus SST anomalies from the long-term mean. Forecasts were made from four consecutive weekly oceanic initial conditions in September. For each oceanic condition, four predictions were made using different atmospheric conditions. The heavy line represents the ensemble average of the 16 forecasts. (Climate Diagnostics Bulletin, October 2000, US Department of Commerce.