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90-Day Index
Official 90-day outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 3pm Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates. |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY AUG 16 2001
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP 2001
. . . . . . . .
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII ARE NEAR NORMAL WITH SOME SCATTERED REGIONS OF 0.5 TO
1.0 C DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL NEAR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL IN
THE NORTH. THERE IS NO STRONG SIGNAL FAVORING EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
EITHER TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO CL 76.2 0.4 CL 6.5 8.0 9.7
KAHULUI CL 78.8 0.5 CL 0.1 0.2 0.4
HONOLULU CL 81.0 0.6 CL 0.5 0.7 0.9
LIHUE CL 79.2 0.4 CL 1.3 1.9 2.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR SEP-OCT-NOV 2001 TO SEP-OCT-NOV 2002
. . . . . . . .
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND
GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - WITH A
SLIGHT SUGGESTION OF A RETURN OF SLIGHTLY TO MODESTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES OVER
THE EQUATORIAL CENTRAL PACIFIC BY WINTER 2001-2002. HOWEVER THERE ARE NO
ENSO-RELATED PRECIPITATION OR TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR THIS OUTLOOK.
THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT THE CURRENT SSTS SURROUNDING THE
ISLANDS.
THERE IS LITTLE SPATIALLY OR TEMPORALLY COHERENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION
ANOMALIES IN THE TOOLS.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5%
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2001 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2001 CL 74.2 0.4 CL 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2001 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.4 CL 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.4 CL 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.4 CL 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.4 CL 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2002 CL 76.3 0.4 CL 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2002 CL 76.2 0.4 CL 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2002 CL 75.5 0.4 CL 25.8 31.7 38.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2001 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2001 CL 73.8 0.5 CL 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2002 CL 72.5 0.5 CL 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2002 CL 73.2 0.5 CL 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.6 CL 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.6 CL 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2002 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2002 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2002 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2002 CL 77.8 0.5 CL 2.2 3.1 4.3
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2001 CL 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2001 CL 77.3 0.5 CL 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 4.1 6.1 8.7
DJF 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2002 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2002 CL 74.5 0.4 CL 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2002 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2002 CL 77.7 0.4 CL 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2002 CL 79.3 0.4 CL 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2002 CL 80.7 0.4 CL 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2002 CL 81.2 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2002 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2002 CL 79.6 0.5 CL 2.7 4.0 5.9
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 2001 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2001 CL 75.6 0.3 CL 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2001 CL 73.6 0.3 CL 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2002 CL 72.4 0.4 CL 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2002 CL 73.1 0.4 CL 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2002 CL 74.4 0.4 CL 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2002 CL 75.9 0.4 CL 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2002 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2002 CL 78.8 0.3 CL 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2002 CL 79.3 0.3 CL 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2002 CL 79.0 0.3 CL 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2002 CL 77.7 0.3 CL 9.1 10.9 12.9
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 13 2001.
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED
EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 17 2001 OUTLOOK RELEASE.
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