PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 14 2000
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCTOBER 2000
SSTS NEAR HAWAII REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL. LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. LOCAL SSTS FAVOR NORMAL
AIR TEMPERATURES. THIS IS BUILT IN TO THE CCA PROGRAM AND OCN SIGNALS
ARE JUDGED WEAK. HENCE A TILT TOWARDS NEAR NORMAL.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO N5 75.7 0.5 CL 7.1 8.9 10.9
KAHULUI N5 77.8 0.6 CL 0.4 0.8 1.3
HONOLULU N5 79.6 0.6 CL 0.7 1.3 2.8
LIHUE N5 77.6 0.5 CL 2.2 3.4 5.0
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR OCT-NOV-DEC 2000 TO OCT-NOV-DEC 2001
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS.
IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY LA NINA OR EL NINO WE FOUND LITTLE PREDICTABLE SIGNALS
IN ANY TOOLS FOR HAWAII. IN THE AFTERMATH OF LA NINA BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED. BUT WITH NEAR NORMAL SST AT THE START THIS
MAY NO LONGER APPLY. LONG TERM TRENDS ARE WEAKLY FOR ABOVE NORMAL
ESPECIALLY IN HONOLULU.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO
PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW
CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2000 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 2000 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.0 34.0 42.2
DJF 2001 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 2001 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 2001 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 2001 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 2001 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 2001 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2000 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 2000 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 2001 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 2001 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 2001 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 2001 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 2001 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 2001 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 2001 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 2001 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 2001 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2000 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 2000 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 2001 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 2001 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 2001 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 2001 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 2001 CL 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 2001 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 2001 CL 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 2001 CL 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 2001 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2000 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 2000 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 2001 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 2001 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 2001 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 2001 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 2001 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 2001 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 12 2000.
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