PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU APR 15 2004
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2004
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ONE HALF TO ONE DEGREE C ABOVE
NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR MAY. DRY CONDITIONS GET RELIEVED DUE
TO THE RECENT RAINFALL OVER HAWAII. FOR 2004 THROUGH THE END OF MARCH
- RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 14.65 INCHES
(127 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 16.91 INCHES
(242 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 19.53 INCHES
(230 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 48.67 INCHES
(147 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA - OCN - SMT TOOLS INDICATE WARM THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN MAY 2004. CCA
PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI
AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A40 73.8 0.6 EC 5.9 7.4 8.1
KAHULUI A40 75.7 0.7 EC 0.2 0.5 0.6
HONOLULU A40 77.6 0.4 EC 0.2 0.4 0.8
LIHUE A40 75.7 0.6 EC 1.2 1.7 2.6
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY-JUN-JUL 2004 TO MAY-JUN-JUL 2005
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SST ANOMALIES WERE NEAR
ZERO IN ALL OF THE NIÑO REGIONS DURING MARCH 2004. BY THE END OF THE MONTH
- NEAR-AVERAGE OR SLIGHTLY COOLER-THAN-AVERAGE SSTS WERE OBSERVED EVERYWHERE
EAST OF 150°W - WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES GREATER THAN +0.5°C (~1°F) BEING
RESTRICTED TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION BETWEEN INDONESIA AND 175°W. SUBSURFACE
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN MID-MARCH WERE GENERALLY POSITIVE IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND NEGATIVE IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.
THIS REPRESENTS A STEEPER-THAN-AVERAGE THERMOCLINE SLOPE - WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE STRONGER-THAN-AVERAGE EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC DURING THE LAST THREE MONTHS. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL AND COUPLED
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC
(NIÑO 3.4 SST ANOMALIES BETWEEN -0.5°C AND +0.5°C) THROUGH THE NORTHERN SUMMER
2004. IT IS LIKELY THAT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3-6
MONTHS.
CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM
MJJ 2004 THROUGH JAS 2004. CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE AN
ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS SUMMER.
. . . . . . . .
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2004 A40 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2004 A40 75.9 0.4 A40 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2004 A35 76.3 0.4 A40 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2005 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2005 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2005 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2004 A40 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2004 A40 78.6 0.5 A40 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2004 A35 79.1 0.5 A40 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.6 EC 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2005 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2005 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2004 A40 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2004 A40 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2004 A35 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7
DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2005 EC 76.0 0.4 EC 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2005 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2005 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2004 A40 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2004 A40 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2004 A35 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2005 EC 74.4 0.4 EC 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2005 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2005 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST
LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY MAY 20 2004
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