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90-Day Index
Official 90-day outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 3pm Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates. |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY APRIL 12 2001
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY 2001
. . . . . . . .
SSTS NEAR HAWAII HAVE RECENTLY BECOME VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL EXCEPT FOR STILL
REMAINING LESS THAN 0.5C BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. MEANWHILE LA NINA
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WITH FURTHER WEAKENING
DURING THE LAST MONTH. THE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IS NOT SUPPORTED BY WARM
SUBSURFACE WATER AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY DISAPPEAR AS THE LOW
LEVEL WINDS UNDERGO AN EXPECTED NORMAL SEASONAL INCREASE IN SPEED DURING THE
NEXT FEW MONTHS. THIS FORECAST PERSISTS WARM AIR TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHWEST
AND ANTICIPATES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHEAST FROM
OCN... CCA... AND A MORE OR LESS PERSISTENT SST ANOMALY PATTERN NEAR HAWAII.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO CL 73.8 0.5 CL 6.8 8.9 11.3
KAHULUI N3 75.6 0.7 N4 0.2 0.4 0.8
HONOLULU A6 77.5 0.6 B4 0.2 0.5 1.1
LIHUE A4 75.7 0.6 CL 1.4 2.3 3.5
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAY-JUN-JUL 2001 TO MAY-JUN-JUL 2002
. . . . . . . .
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND
GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN FROM THE CURRENT WEAK TO MODERATE COLD CONDITIONS
TO NEAR NORMAL BY SOMETIME DURING THE SUMMER SEASON. ABOVE NORMAL AIR
TEMPERATURES PREDICTED AT THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS REFLECT
PERSISTENCE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL
SST. THE CL FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS REFLECTS THE RECENT NEAR NORMAL
OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SST.
ENSO SHOULD BECOME APPROXIMATELY NEUTRAL DURING SUMMER 2001 AND THE TOOLS GIVE
MOSTLY WEAK FORECASTS - EXCEPT FOR PERSISTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
HONOLULU AND NEAR MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT KAHULUI. CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES
ARE THUS GIVEN FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION AT OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH LATE
FALL 2001 AND AT ALL LOCATIONS PAST THEN. INDICATIONS FROM THE PRECIPITATION
TOOLS ARE MOSTLY VERY WEAK TO ABSENT. THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE INDICATED
AT HONOLULU - THE STRONGEST SIGNAL IN THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS - MAY BE LARGELY A
HEAT ISLAND EFFECT AND COULD WEAKEN OR DISAPPEAR WHEN THE BASE PERIOD MEANS ARE
CHANGED FROM 1961-1990 TO 1971-2000. SEE NOTE AT THE END OF THIS MESSAGE.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5%
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 2001 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 2001 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 2001 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.8 34.0 42.2
DJF 2002 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 2002 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 2002 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2001 N4 77.3 0.6 N4 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 2001 N3 78.5 0.5 N3 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 2001 N3 78.9 0.5 N3 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 2001 N2 78.6 0.5 N2 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 2001 N2 77.4 0.5 N2 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 2001 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 2001 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 2002 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 2002 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 2002 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 2002 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 2002 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2001 A5 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 2001 A5 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 2001 A4 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 2001 A4 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 2001 A3 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 2001 A2 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 2001 A2 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 2002 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 2002 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 2002 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 2002 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 2001 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2001 A2 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 2002 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 2002 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 2002 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 2002 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 2001 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY MAY 17 2001.
NOTE - THE NEW 1971-2000 BASE PERIOD MEANS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED
WITH THE NEXT SET OF OUTLOOKS RELEASED ON MAY 17 2001.
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