PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUN 15 2000

MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2000
                                                                          
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN MOST
ISLANDS.  LOCAL SSTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAST MONTH OR
TWO.  THE LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC.  THE OVERALL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REFLECT WEAK COLD
EVENT CONDITIONS THROUGH JULY. LOCAL SSTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
AIR TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEASTERN HAWAII - BUT THE CCA FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS AND THE TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS.  THE PRC MODEL FORECAST FOR JULY INDICATES NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.

            TEMPERATURE                   PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE   LIM        FCST    BLW     MEDIAN    ABV
HILO       B2    75.8   0.5         B4     6.7      8.7     11.1
KAHULUI    N3    78.6   0.5         B3     0.2      0.3      0.4
HONOLULU   N2    80.5   0.5         B3     0.2      0.4      0.7
LIHUE      N2    78.9   0.4         B3     1.4      1.9      2.4


SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2000 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2001
                                                                          
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS FOR THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC 
SSTS.  THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL 
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - ALTHOUGH THE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES.  ENSO DOES NOT HAVE 
A STRONG INFLUENCE ON HAWAIIAN TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM 
SEASON SO THIS FORECAST WILL BE BASED ENTIRELY ON THE COUPLED MODEL AND 
OCN FORECAST THROUGH THE FALL - AND ON CCA AND OCN AFTER THAT.  THE
COUPLED MODEL INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS  THROUGH OND.  CCA AND OCN SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT SHOW WEAK INDICATIONS FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES AT
SOME LOCATIONS FOR A FEW OF THE LEAD TIMES.  THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE YEAR
FOLLOWING A COLD ENSO EVENT - ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS QUITE WEAK.  

CLARIFICATION:  CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS
THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW 
NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST.  FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN 
NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE 
CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE 
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER 
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN 
THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.

                          HILO

            TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JAS 2000   B3   76.1  0.4       B5     22.0     26.2     30.9
ASO 2000   B2   76.0  0.4       B4     23.3     26.6     30.3
SON 2000   B2   75.3  0.4       B3     25.7     31.2     37.4
OND 2000   B2   74.1  0.4       CL     27.1     33.9     41.7
NDJ 2000   B2   72.7  0.4       CL     27.0     34.0     42.2
DJF 2001   B2   71.9  0.5       CL     19.8     27.1     36.1
JFM 2001   B2   71.8  0.5       CL     22.8     30.2     39.1
FMA 2001   CL   72.1  0.5       CL     30.5     37.2     44.7
MAM 2001   CL   72.8  0.5       CL     30.4     36.8     44.1
AMJ 2001   CL   73.9  0.5       CL     24.2     29.4     35.4
MJJ 2001   CL   75.0  0.5       CL     20.5     24.5     29.0
JJA 2001   CL   75.8  0.4       CL     19.7     23.8     28.5
JAS 2001   A2   76.1  0.4       CL     22.0     26.2     30.9

                         KAHULUI

            TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JAS 2000   N3   78.9  0.5       B5      0.8      1.1      1.4
ASO 2000   N2   78.6  0.5       B2      1.2      1.7      2.4
SON 2000   N2   77.4  0.5       B2      2.4      3.4      4.8
OND 2000   CL   75.5  0.5       CL      4.8      6.3      8.1
NDJ 2000   CL   73.5  0.4       CL      6.7      8.8     11.4
DJF 2001   CL   72.2  0.5       CL      6.9      9.0     11.5
JFM 2001   CL   72.1  0.5       CL      6.7      8.7     11.1
FMA 2001   CL   72.9  0.5       CL      4.7      6.4      8.5
MAM 2001   CL   74.2  0.5       CL      3.0      4.4      6.1
AMJ 2001   B3   75.7  0.5       CL      1.1      1.9      3.1
MJJ 2001   B3   77.3  0.6       CL      0.6      1.0      1.6
JJA 2001   CL   78.5  0.5       CL      0.6      0.9      1.3
JAS 2001   CL   78.9  0.5       CL      0.8      1.1      1.4

                         HONOLULU

            TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JAS 2000   N3   81.0  0.5       B4      1.3      1.7      2.1
ASO 2000   N2   80.7  0.5       B2      1.8      2.8      4.0
SON 2000   CL   79.3  0.5       B2      3.6      5.1      6.9
OND 2000   CL   77.0  0.5       CL      6.0      8.0     10.4
NDJ 2000   CL   74.7  0.4       CL      6.7      9.0     11.4
DJF 2001   CL   73.3  0.4       CL      6.2      8.3     10.9
JFM 2001   B2   73.4  0.5       CL      5.0      6.9      9.1
FMA 2001   CL   74.4  0.5       CL      3.7      5.1      6.8
MAM 2001   CL   75.9  0.5       CL      2.5      3.8      5.5
AMJ 2001   CL   77.6  0.5       CL      1.5      2.4      3.6
MJJ 2001   CL   79.1  0.5       CL      1.1      1.7      2.5
JJA 2001   CL   80.4  0.5       B2      0.9      1.3      1.8
JAS 2001   CL   81.0  0.5       CL      1.3      1.7      2.1

                          LIHUE

            TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE   LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JAS 2000   N5   79.2  0.4       B4      4.9      5.9      7.0
ASO 2000   N3   78.7  0.4       B2      6.2      7.8      9.7
SON 2000   A2   77.4  0.4       CL      9.3     11.4     13.8
OND 2000   A2   75.3  0.4       CL     10.8     13.7     17.1
NDJ 2000   CL   73.3  0.4       CL     12.1     15.2     18.7
DJF 2001   CL   72.0  0.5       CL     10.5     13.3     16.6
JFM 2001   B2   72.0  0.6       CL      9.1     11.9     15.3
FMA 2001   CL   72.8  0.6       CL      7.8     10.0     12.6
MAM 2001   B2   74.1  0.6       B2      7.7      9.9     12.3
AMJ 2001   B2   75.8  0.5       CL      5.8      7.5      9.5
MJJ 2001   B2   77.5  0.4       CL      4.9      6.3      8.0
JJA 2001   CL   78.7  0.4       CL      4.5      5.3      6.2
JAS 2001   CL   79.2  0.4       CL      4.9      5.9      7.0


NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 13 2000.

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