PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUN 15 2000
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2000
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL
NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN MOST
ISLANDS. LOCAL SSTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAST MONTH OR
TWO. THE LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REFLECT WEAK COLD
EVENT CONDITIONS THROUGH JULY. LOCAL SSTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL
AIR TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEASTERN HAWAII - BUT THE CCA FAVORS NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS AND THE TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS. THE PRC MODEL FORECAST FOR JULY INDICATES NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B2 75.8 0.5 B4 6.7 8.7 11.1
KAHULUI N3 78.6 0.5 B3 0.2 0.3 0.4
HONOLULU N2 80.5 0.5 B3 0.2 0.4 0.7
LIHUE N2 78.9 0.4 B3 1.4 1.9 2.4
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2000 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2001
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS FOR THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
SSTS. THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - ALTHOUGH THE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. ENSO DOES NOT HAVE
A STRONG INFLUENCE ON HAWAIIAN TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM
SEASON SO THIS FORECAST WILL BE BASED ENTIRELY ON THE COUPLED MODEL AND
OCN FORECAST THROUGH THE FALL - AND ON CCA AND OCN AFTER THAT. THE
COUPLED MODEL INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH OND. CCA AND OCN SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION BUT SHOW WEAK INDICATIONS FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES AT
SOME LOCATIONS FOR A FEW OF THE LEAD TIMES. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE YEAR
FOLLOWING A COLD ENSO EVENT - ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS QUITE WEAK.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS
THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2000 B3 76.1 0.4 B5 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 2000 B2 76.0 0.4 B4 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 2000 B2 75.3 0.4 B3 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 2000 B2 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 2000 B2 72.7 0.4 CL 27.0 34.0 42.2
DJF 2001 B2 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 2001 B2 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 2001 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 2001 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 2001 A2 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2000 N3 78.9 0.5 B5 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 2000 N2 78.6 0.5 B2 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 2000 N2 77.4 0.5 B2 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 2000 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 2000 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 2001 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 2001 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 2001 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 2001 B3 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 2001 B3 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 2001 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 2001 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2000 N3 81.0 0.5 B4 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 2000 N2 80.7 0.5 B2 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 2000 CL 79.3 0.5 B2 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 2000 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 2000 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 2001 B2 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 2001 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 2001 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 2001 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 2001 CL 80.4 0.5 B2 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 2001 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JAS 2000 N5 79.2 0.4 B4 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 2000 N3 78.7 0.4 B2 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 2000 A2 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 2000 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 2000 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 2001 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 2001 B2 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 2001 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 2001 B2 74.1 0.6 B2 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 2001 B2 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 2001 B2 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 13 2000.
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