PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EDT THURSDAY JUN 15 2000 MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JULY 2000 SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE CURRENTLY CLOSE TO ONE HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN ISLANDS AND NEAR NORMAL NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN MOST ISLANDS. LOCAL SSTS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY WARMING OVER THE LAST MONTH OR TWO. THE LA NINA CONDITIONS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THE OVERALL CIRCULATION CHARACTERISTICS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC BASIN ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO REFLECT WEAK COLD EVENT CONDITIONS THROUGH JULY. LOCAL SSTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR BELOW NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEASTERN HAWAII - BUT THE CCA FAVORS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS AND THE TRENDS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS. THE PRC MODEL FORECAST FOR JULY INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO B2 75.8 0.5 B4 6.7 8.7 11.1 KAHULUI N3 78.6 0.5 B3 0.2 0.3 0.4 HONOLULU N2 80.5 0.5 B3 0.2 0.4 0.7 LIHUE N2 78.9 0.4 B3 1.4 1.9 2.4 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR JUL-AUG-SEP 2000 TO JUL-AUG-SEP 2001 REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS FOR THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS. THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR - ALTHOUGH THE LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. ENSO DOES NOT HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON HAWAIIAN TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION IN THE WARM SEASON SO THIS FORECAST WILL BE BASED ENTIRELY ON THE COUPLED MODEL AND OCN FORECAST THROUGH THE FALL - AND ON CCA AND OCN AFTER THAT. THE COUPLED MODEL INDICATES NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH OND. CCA AND OCN SHOW LITTLE CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION BUT SHOW WEAK INDICATIONS FOR COOL AIR TEMPERATURES AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A FEW OF THE LEAD TIMES. THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE YEAR FOLLOWING A COLD ENSO EVENT - ALTHOUGH THE SIGNAL IS QUITE WEAK. CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2000 B3 76.1 0.4 B5 22.0 26.2 30.9 ASO 2000 B2 76.0 0.4 B4 23.3 26.6 30.3 SON 2000 B2 75.3 0.4 B3 25.7 31.2 37.4 OND 2000 B2 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7 NDJ 2000 B2 72.7 0.4 CL 27.0 34.0 42.2 DJF 2001 B2 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 JFM 2001 B2 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1 FMA 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7 MAM 2001 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1 AMJ 2001 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4 MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0 JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5 JAS 2001 A2 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2000 N3 78.9 0.5 B5 0.8 1.1 1.4 ASO 2000 N2 78.6 0.5 B2 1.2 1.7 2.4 SON 2000 N2 77.4 0.5 B2 2.4 3.4 4.8 OND 2000 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1 NDJ 2000 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4 DJF 2001 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 JFM 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1 FMA 2001 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5 MAM 2001 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1 AMJ 2001 B3 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1 MJJ 2001 B3 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6 JJA 2001 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3 JAS 2001 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2000 N3 81.0 0.5 B4 1.3 1.7 2.1 ASO 2000 N2 80.7 0.5 B2 1.8 2.8 4.0 SON 2000 CL 79.3 0.5 B2 3.6 5.1 6.9 OND 2000 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 NDJ 2000 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4 DJF 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 JFM 2001 B2 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 FMA 2001 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8 MAM 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5 AMJ 2001 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6 MJJ 2001 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5 JJA 2001 CL 80.4 0.5 B2 0.9 1.3 1.8 JAS 2001 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV JAS 2000 N5 79.2 0.4 B4 4.9 5.9 7.0 ASO 2000 N3 78.7 0.4 B2 6.2 7.8 9.7 SON 2000 A2 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8 OND 2000 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1 NDJ 2000 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7 DJF 2001 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 JFM 2001 B2 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3 FMA 2001 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6 MAM 2001 B2 74.1 0.6 B2 7.7 9.9 12.3 AMJ 2001 B2 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5 MJJ 2001 B2 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0 JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THURSDAY JULY 13 2000. NNNN NNNN