PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY MAY 13 1999
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PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS

MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - JUNE 1999

SSTS NEAR HAWAII RANGE FROM ABOUT ONE-HALF DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL 
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL NEAR THE 
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS.  FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE SSTS IN THE EQUA-
TORIAL PACIFIC REFER TO THE 90 DAY MESSAGE.  CCA MIXED WITH LOCAL 
PERSISTENCE - WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE CMP FORECASTS - INDICATES 
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE ISLANDS - WITH 
STRONGEST PROBABILITIES FOR COLD OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND WEAKEST 
FOR THE NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS WHERE NEAR NORMAL MIGHT BE THE MOST 
LIKELY OUTCOME BY A SMALL MARGIN - CONSISTENT WITH THE GRADIENT 
IN SST ANOMALIES.  NEITHER CCA NOR THE CMP SHOW ANY TILT OF THE 
ODDS FOR PRECIPITATION - SO CL IS ASSIGNED EVERYWHERE. 


            TEMPERATURE                   PRECIPITATION
          FCST   AVE   LIM        FCST    BLW     MEDIAN    ABV
HILO       B15  75.2   0.5         CL     4.6      5.7      7.0
KAHULUI    B8   77.4   0.6         CL     0.0      0.3      0.2
HONOLULU   B4   79.4   0.5         CL     0.1      0.3      0.5
LIHUE      N2   77.8   0.4         CL     1.1      1.5      1.9
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SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION -JUN-JUL-AUG 1999 TO JUN-JUL-AUG 2000

REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS FOR THE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC SSTS.  THE CURRENT LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE ONE CONSIDER-
ATION FOR THE HAWAIIAN FORECASTS AND ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A 
CONTINUED COLD EVENT THROUGH NEXT WINTER.  COMPOSITES OF TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION FOR THECOLD PHASE OF ENSO SHOW FAIRLY WEAK RESULTS 
FOR HAWAII DURING THE WARM HALF OF THE YEAR. THE CCA TOOL - WHICH INCLUDES 
ENSO IMPACTS - IS THE PRINCIPAL TOOL USED - ALONG WITH WHATEVER SIGNALS
WERE AVAILABLE FROM THE CMP.  LOCAL PERSISTENCE FOR THE SHORT 
LEADS FOR TEMPERATURE IS ALSO USED - REFLECTING A GRADUAL DYING 
AWAY OF THE INITIAL SST ANOMALY GRADIENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE 
ISLANDS.  CCA INDICATES A SLIGHT TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH AT SEVERAL 
ISLANDS FROM JJA THROUGH OND AND THEN FOR DJF THROUGH MJJ 2000 IT 
FAVORS A TILT TOWARDS COLD - CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT 
THE COLD EVENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WINTER.  THIS 
FOLLOWS THE TENDENCY FOR HAWAII TO EXPERIENCE A 1-YEAR DELAY IN 
WINTER TEMPERATURE ANOMALY FOLLOWING THE ENSO EVENT OF THE SAME 
SIGN THE PREVIOUS WINTER.  THIS IS RELATED TO THE APPEARANCE OF 
THE ENSO-RELATED EQUATORIAL SST ANOMALY OF THE PREVIOUS WINTER AT 
SUBTROPICAL (INCLUDING HAWAII) LATITUDES THE FOLLOWING WINTER.  
THERE WERE NO SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES FROM ANY TOOL 
AFTER JAS 1999. 

CLARIFICATION:  CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - 
WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - 
NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST.  A5 (EXAMPLE) 
MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS.  B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 
3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS.  N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 
2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR 
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.

NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL AND ENSO 
CONSIDERATIONS ONLY

                         HILO

            TEMPERATURE                PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JJA 1999   B8  75.8  0.4       A4     19.7     23.8     28.5
JAS 1999   CL  76.1  0.4       A3     22.0     26.2     30.9
ASO 1999   CL  76.0  0.4       CL     23.3     26.6     30.3
SON 1999   B2  75.3  0.4       CL     25.7     31.2     37.4
OND 1999   B2  74.1  0.4       CL     27.1     33.9     41.7
NDJ 1999   B3  72.7  0.4       CL     27.0     34.0     42.2
DJF 1999   B4  71.9  0.5       CL     19.8     27.1     36.1
JFM 2000   B2  71.8  0.5       CL     22.8     30.2     39.1
FMA 2000   CL  72.1  0.5       CL     30.5     37.2     44.7
MAM 2000   CL  72.8  0.5       CL     30.4     36.8     44.1
AMJ 2000   CL  73.9  0.5       CL     24.2     29.4     35.4
MJJ 2000   CL  75.0  0.5       CL     20.5     24.5     29.0
JJA 2000   CL  75.8  0.4       CL     19.7     23.8     28.5

                        KAHULUI

            TEMPERATURE                PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JJA 1999   CL  78.5  0.5       CL      0.6      0.9      1.3
JAS 1999   A2  78.9  0.5       A3      0.8      1.1      1.4
ASO 1999   A3  78.6  0.5       CL      1.2      1.7      2.4
SON 1999   A3  77.4  0.5       CL      2.4      3.4      4.8
OND 1999   A2  75.5  0.5       CL      4.8      6.3      8.1
NDJ 1999   CL  73.5  0.4       CL      6.7      8.8     11.4
DJF 1999   B2  72.2  0.5       CL      6.9      9.0     11.5
JFM 2000   CL  72.1  0.5       CL      6.7      8.7     11.1
FMA 2000   CL  72.9  0.5       CL      4.7      6.4      8.5
MAM 2000   B3  74.2  0.5       CL      3.0      4.4      6.1
AMJ 2000   B2  75.7  0.5       CL      1.1      1.9      3.1
MJJ 2000   B4  77.3  0.6       CL      0.6      1.0      1.6
JJA 2000   CL  78.5  0.5       CL      0.6      0.9      1.3

                        HONOLULU

            TEMPERATURE                PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JJA 1999   CL  80.4  0.5       CL      0.9      1.3      1.8
JAS 1999   A2  81.0  0.5       A3      1.3      1.7      2.1
ASO 1999   A2  80.7  0.5       CL      1.8      2.8      4.0
SON 1999   CL  79.3  0.5       CL      3.6      5.1      6.9
OND 1999   N2  77.0  0.5       CL      6.0      8.0     10.4
NDJ 1999   CL  74.7  0.4       CL      6.7      9.0     11.4
DJF 1999   CL  73.3  0.4       CL      6.2      8.3     10.9
JFM 2000   B2  73.4  0.5       CL      5.0      6.9      9.1
FMA 2000   B4  74.4  0.5       CL      3.7      5.1      6.8
MAM 2000   B4  75.9  0.5       CL      2.5      3.8      5.5
AMJ 2000   B5  77.6  0.5       CL      1.5      2.4      3.6
MJJ 2000   B3  79.1  0.5       CL      1.1      1.7      2.5
JJA 2000   CL  80.4  0.5       CL      0.9      1.3      1.8

                         LIHUE

            TEMPERATURE                PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM      FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

JJA 1999   N2  78.7  0.4       A4      4.5      5.3      6.2
JAS 1999   CL  79.2  0.4       A2      4.9      5.9      7.0
ASO 1999   CL  78.7  0.4       CL      6.2      7.8      9.7
SON 1999   A2  77.4  0.4       CL      9.3     11.4     13.8
OND 1999   A2  75.3  0.4       CL     10.8     13.7     17.1
NDJ 1999   CL  73.3  0.4       CL     12.1     15.2     18.7
DJF 1999   CL  72.0  0.5       CL     10.5     13.3     16.6
JFM 2000   B2  72.0  0.6       CL      9.1     11.9     15.3
FMA 2000   B3  72.8  0.6       CL      7.8     10.0     12.6
MAM 2000   B3  74.1  0.6       CL      7.7      9.9     12.3
AMJ 2000   B2  75.8  0.5       CL      5.8      7.5      9.5
MJJ 2000   B2  77.5  0.4       CL      4.9      6.3      8.0
JJA 2000   CL  78.7  0.4       CL      4.5      5.3      6.2

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY JUNE 17 1999.

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