PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT THU JAN 15 2004
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB 2004
SSTS NEAR HAWAII ARE NOW BETWEEN ZERO TO ONE HALF DEGREE C ABOVE
NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIRECT IMPACT ON THE MONTHLY
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR FEBRUARY. DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN DUE TO THE
EL NINO INDUCED DROUGHT. FOR 2003 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER,
RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE: AT LIHUE AIRPORT 35.64 INCHES
(90 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - HONOLULU AIRPORT 12.67 INCHES
(69 PERCENT OF NORMAL) - KAHULUI AIRPORT 13.19 INCHES
(69 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND HILO AIRPORT 85.08 INCHES
(72 PERCENT OF NORMAL). CCA AND SMT TOOLS INDICATE WARM THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALL STATIONS IN FEBRUARY 2004. CCA
PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER HILO - HONOLULU - KAHULUI
AND LIHUE WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE SMT TOOL.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A35 71.6 0.5 N35 4.3 6.8 9.6
KAHULUI A35 72.1 0.6 N35 0.8 1.4 2.0
HONOLULU A35 73.1 0.5 N35 0.8 1.3 2.3
LIHUE A35 71.9 0.6 N35 1.2 1.7 3.2
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR FEB-MAR-APR 2004 TO FEB-MAR-APR 2005
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
REMAINED WARMER THAN AVERAGE ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN
DURING DECEMBER. EQUATORIAL OCEAN SURFACE TEMPERATURE GREATER THAN +0.5°C
ABOVE AVERAGE WERE FOUND BETWEEN INDONESIA AND 170°W AND IN MOST OF THE
EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC BETWEEN 140°W AND THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.
DEPARTURES GREATER THAN +1°C WERE FOUND BETWEEN 160°E AND 180°W. IN SPITE
OF THE SLIGHTLY WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE OCEANIC TEMPERATURES - THE MONTHLY
850-HPA ZONAL WIND INDICES - OLR INDEX - 200-HPA ZONAL WIND INDEX - SOI
AND EQSOI DO NOT INDICATE WARM EPISODE CONDITIONS. OVER THE PAST FEW
MONTHS - THESE ATMOSPHERIC INDICES HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY SIGNIFICANT TRENDS
THAT WOULD SUPPORT EITHER ADDITIONAL LARGE-SCALE INCREASES OR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
DECREASES OF SST ANOMALIES IN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. A MAJORITY OF THE STATISTICAL
AND COUPLED MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE NEAR NEUTRAL CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC THROUGH MARCH 2004.
CCA - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE A TENDENCY TOWARDS WARMTH FROM
FMA 2004 THROUGH MAM 2004. CCA - OCN - SMT AND NCEP COUPLED MODEL INDICATE
NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FROM FMA 2004 THROUGH MAM 2004. SOME TOOLS INDICATE
AN ENHANCED PROBABILITY OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NEXT SUMMER.
. . . . . . . .
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2004 A45 72.1 0.4 N40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2004 A40 72.8 0.5 N40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2004 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 A40 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2004 EC 76.3 0.4 A40 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2004 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2004 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2004 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2004 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2005 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2005 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2005 EC 72.1 0.4 EC 29.5 35.9 43.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2004 A45 73.2 0.5 N40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2004 A40 74.4 0.6 N40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2004 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2004 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2004 EC 78.6 0.5 A40 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2004 EC 79.1 0.5 A40 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2004 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2004 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2004 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2004 EC 73.8 0.5 EC 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2005 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.5 EC 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2005 EC 73.2 0.5 EC 4.3 6.0 8.1
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2004 A45 74.5 0.4 N40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2004 A40 76.0 0.4 N40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2004 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2004 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2004 EC 80.7 0.4 A40 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2004 EC 81.2 0.4 A40 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2004 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2004 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2004 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2004 EC 75.0 0.5 EC 4.1 6.1 8.7
DJF 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2005 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2005 EC 74.5 0.4 EC 3.4 4.6 6.1
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 2004 A45 73.1 0.4 N40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2004 A40 74.4 0.4 N40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2004 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2004 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2004 EC 78.8 0.3 A40 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2004 EC 79.3 0.3 A40 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2004 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2004 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2004 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2004 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2005 EC 72.4 0.4 EC 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2005 EC 73.1 0.4 EC 7.5 9.6 12.0
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC)
MADE A CHANGE TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE
NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH
AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER EXPRESS PROBABILITIES
AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL PROBABILITES
FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/service_change_ll.html
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES)
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL
INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE
SPECIFIED IN THE TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS
THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR EXAMPLE - A37 MEANS A 37% HIGHER THAN
NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE
CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST
LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY FEB 19 2004
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