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90-Day Index
Official 90-day outlooks are issued once each month near mid-month
at 3pm Eastern Time. Please consult the schedule of 30 & 90-day outlooks
for exact release dates. |
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY FEBRUARY 15 2001
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MARCH 2001
. . . . . . . .
SSTS NEAR HAWAII HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE LAST MONTH AND A HALF
- SST ANOMALIES BEING AROUND +0.25 TO +0.75 DEGREES C IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII
ON A COARSE GLOBAL SST ANALYSIS PRODUCED BY NCEP. ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWESTERN
ISLANDS ARE SURROUNDED BY POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES. MEANWHILE LA NINA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO HANG ON IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. THIS FORECAST PERSISTS WARM AIR
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF ABNORMAL WARMTH IN THE NORTHWEST AND
LOWEST IN THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A3 72.0 0.6 CL 7.1 10.9 15.8
KAHULUI A4 72.9 0.6 CL 1.5 2.2 3.1
HONOLULU A5 74.4 0.6 CL 1.0 1.6 2.5
LIHUE A7 72.7 0.7 CL 2.1 3.3 4.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR MAR-APR-MAY 2001 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2002
. . . . . . . .
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS AND
GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. THE EAST CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN FROM THE CURRENTLY MODEST COLD CONDITIONS TO NEAR
NORMAL BY AMJ 2001. ABOVE NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURES PREDICTED AT ALL ISLANDS FOR
THE FIRST LEAD REFLECTS PERSISTENCE OF RECENTLY OBSERVED WARM SST ANOMALIES.
ENSO SHOULD BE NEUTRAL BY LATE SPRING 2001 AND WITH THE TOOLS PRODUCING WEAK AND
CONTRADICTORY FORECASTS - CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN FOR TEMPERATURE
AT ALL LOCATIONS PAST MAM 2001. INDICATIONS FROM THE PRECIPITATION TOOLS ARE
VERY WEAK TO ABSENT.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR
BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE - A5 MEANS A 5%
HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B3 MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N2 MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBBILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2001 A2 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 2001 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 2001 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 2001 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 2001 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 2001 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 2001 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 2001 CL 72.7 0.4 CL 27.8 34.0 42.2
DJF 2002 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 2002 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 2002 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2001 A3 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 2001 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 2001 CL 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 2001 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 2001 CL 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 2001 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 2001 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 2001 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 2002 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 2002 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 2002 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 2002 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2001 A4 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 2001 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 2001 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 2001 CL 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 2001 CL 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 2001 CL 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 2001 CL 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 2001 CL 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 2001 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 2002 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 2002 CL 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 2002 CL 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 2002 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2001 A6 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 2001 CL 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 2001 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 2001 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 2001 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 2001 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 2001 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 2001 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 2002 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 2002 CL 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 2002 CL 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 2002 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY MARCH 15 2001.
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