The SST is the NCEP SST analysis (Reynolds and Smith 1994); the sea level is from the NCEP ocean analysis (Behringer et al. 1998). All the data are monthly values averaged in grid boxes of 6 degrees in longitude and 2 degrees in latitude, and cover the tropical Pacific region within 19 degrees of the equator.

The Markov model is built with three multivariate EOFs in which the anomalous fields of SST and sea level are equally weighted. The model contains 12 monthly transition matrices (Xue et al. 1999).

Fig. 1 shows the seasonal mean forecasts of the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific by the Markov model initiated from December 1999. The model results suggest that the current cold SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific will disappear completely by late spring, and becomes slightly warmish around the Date Line during the summer.

Fig. 2 shows the seasonal mean forecasts of the sea level anomalies in the tropical Pacific by the Markov model initiated from December 1999. These results suggest that the current positive sea level anomalies in the north-western Pacific and the negative sea level anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific will diminish quickly in the spring, and positive sea level anomalies in the western equartorial Pacific will propagate to the central equartorial Pacific by summer.

For the full suite of model results, including skill analyses, please go to Yan Xue's Markov model home page.