PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY FEBRUARY 17 2000
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - MARCH 2000
SSTS NEAR HAWAII CURRENTLY AVERAGE ABOUT ONE-QUARTER DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL
NEAR KAUAI - AND ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS DEGREES BELOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BIG ISLAND. LA NINA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO SPRING 2000.
THE TOOLS SLIGHTLY FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AT THE HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS.
THIS IS THE CASE DESPITE THE FACT THAT MUCH OF HAWAII HAS BEEN DRIER THAN
NORMAL SO FAR THIS WINTER AS WELL AS MOST OF LAST WINTER WHEN THERE WAS ALSO
A LA NINA AND POSITIVE PRECIPITATION ANOMALIES WERE FORECAST. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL - CONSISTENT WITH THE
EXPECTED INFLUENCE OF LOCAL SSTS ON AIR TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B6 72.0 0.6 A2 7.1 10.9 15.8
KAHULUI B2 72.9 0.6 A4 1.5 2.2 3.1
HONOLULU B4 74.4 0.5 A2 1.0 1.6 2.5
LIHUE B4 72.7 0.7 A4 2.1 3.3 4.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION MAR-APR-MAY 2000 TO MAR-APR-MAY 2001
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS FOR THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS.
LA NINA SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY PREDICTABLE INFLUENCE ON THE HAWAIIAN FORECASTS
THROUGH AMJ 2000. THE EQUATORIAL SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SLOWLY TO NORMAL
IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC BY SUMMER 2000. COMPOSITES OF PAST
MODERATE AND STRONG LA NINAS AND THE HISTORICAL CORRELATION BETWEEN ENSO
INDICES AND HAWAIIAN PRECIPITATION WERE CONSULTED FOR THESE FORECASTS THROUGH
AMJ 2000.
THE FORECAST FOR HAWAIIAN TEMPERATURES IS BASED MAINLY ON LOCAL SSTS AND
THEIR EXPECTED FUTURE ANOMALIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
NORMAL AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS FOR MAM 2000. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE SUMMER FOR MOST OF HAWAII. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL AS THE YEAR PROGRESSES. HOWEVER A
TENDENCY TOWARD NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IS INDICATED FOR WINTERS
FOLLOWING THE MATURE STAGE OF LA NINA ON THE BASIS OF ANALYSES OF HISTORICAL
DATA. PHYSICALLY THIS IS RELATED TO THE PROPAGATION OF THE ANOMALOUS
EQUATORIAL SST AWAY FROM THE EQUATOR DURING THE YEAR FOLLOWING THE ENSO EVENT
EVEN IF SSTS OF THE OPPOSITE SIGN EMERGE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EQUATOR. WHILE
THE SST ANOMALIES WEAKEN AS THEY PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THE EQUATOR - THEY STILL
TEND TO BE LOCATED IN AN EAST-WEST BAND OVER OR NEAR HAWAII AND THEREFORE
INFLUENCE ITS AIR TEMPERATURE.
LA NINA COMPOSITES INDICATE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE EARLY
LEADS. WITH THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO NOT FAR FROM
NORMAL BY LATE SUMMER - THERE ARE NO PREDICTABLE SIGNALS PAST AMJ 2000 AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED FOR THE REMAINING SEASONS.
CLARIFICATION: CL INDICATES CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT
NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE
THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE)
MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL
CLASS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2000 B4 72.8 0.5 A2 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 2000 B4 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 2000 B4 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 2000 B4 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 2000 B3 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 2000 B2 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 2000 B2 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 2000 B2 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 2000 B2 72.7 0.4 CL 27.0 34.0 42.2
DJF 2001 B2 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 2001 B2 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 2001 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2000 B2 74.2 0.5 A4 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 2000 B2 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 2000 B2 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 2000 B3 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 2000 B2 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 2000 B2 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 2000 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 2000 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 2000 CL 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 2001 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 2001 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 2001 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 2001 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2000 B4 75.9 0.5 A2 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 2000 B4 77.6 0.5 A2 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 2000 B4 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 2000 B5 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 2000 B5 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 2000 B4 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 2000 B3 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 2000 B3 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 2000 B3 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 2001 B2 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 2001 B2 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 2001 B2 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 2001 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MAM 2000 B2 74.1 0.6 A4 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 2000 B2 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 2000 B2 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 2000 B4 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 2000 B4 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 2000 B3 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 2000 B2 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 2000 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 2000 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 2001 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 2001 B2 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 2001 B2 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 2001 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON THURSDAY MARCH 16 2000.
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