Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY AUGUST 14 1997
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - SEPTEMBER 1997
THE SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FROM WEST OF THE DATELINE EASTWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RECENT OBSERVED ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AT OUR FOUR PRIMARY STATIONS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL WHILE OBSERVED PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL. CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) SST FORECASTS REFLECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOCAL SSTS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR ALL FOUR STATIONS. CCA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL AVERAGE ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURES AT ALL FOUR STATIONS - ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AT HILO AND CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES AT THE REMAINING TWO LOCATIONS FOR THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A5 76.2 0.4 A5 6.5 8.0 9.7
KAHULUI A7 78.8 0.5 CL 0.1 0.2 0.4
HONOLULU A5 81.0 0.6 CL 0.5 0.7 0.9
LIHUE A5 79.2 0.4 CL 1.3 1.9 2.7
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION SEP-OCT-NOV 97 TO SEP-OCT-NOV 98: CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WINTER. MOST DYNAMIC SST PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THERE THROUGH EARLY 1998 WITH STRONG WARM ENSO CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS WINTER. THE FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS KNOWN TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ENSO EVENTS DURING THE PAST 45 YEARS.
MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SON AT HILO - KAHALUI - HONOLULU AND LIHUE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR STATIONS IN NDJ AND AT THE SOUTHERN-MOST THREE STATIONS IN DJF. LIHUE IS PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL IN THAT SEASON. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REACH THE ONE STANDARD DEVIATION LEVEL WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT LIHUE IN JFM. THE STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE ANOMALIES PREDICTED BY CCA WEAKENS FURTHER AT LIHUE - HONOLULU AND KAHALUI BY FMA WITH ONLY LIHUE AND HONOLULU PREDICTED BELOW NORMAL WITH MODEST CONFIDENCE. IN MAM ONLY LIHUE IS PREDICTED BELOW BY CCA - WHILE FORECASTS AT REMAINING STATIONS ARE TOO WEAK TO BE FORECAST AS ANYTHING OTHER THAN CL. THIS GOES FOR ALL STATIONS IN AMJ. IN MJJ AND JJA HONOLULU AND KAHALUI ARE PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AND MODERATELY LARGE 0.5 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALIES WHILE REMAINING STATIONS HAVE LOW-CONFIDENCE - WEAK ANOMALIES. CCA PREDICTS ALL FOUR STATIONS TO HAVE MODEST WARM ANOMALIES FOR THE JAS1998 THROUGH SON1998 SEASONS.
BASED UPON CCA - CLIMATOLOGICAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE PREDICTED AT ALL STATIONS FROM SON1997 THROUGH DJF 1997-98. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE PREDICTED FROM JFM THROUGH AMJ 1998 AT VARIOUS STATIONS IN RESPONSE TO THE WARM ENSO CONDITIONS PREDICTED FOR NEXT WINTER. CCA PREDICTS DRIER THAN MEDIAN PRECIPITATION TOTALS AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS DURING THAT TIME FRAME - HOWEVER - THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE ADDED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DUE TO THE ANTICIPATED WARM ENSO CONDITIONS. THUS - BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM JFM TO AMJ 1998.
CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL AND ENSO CONSIDERATIONS ONLY
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 1997 A5 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 1997 A5 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 1997 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 30.2 38.5 48.2
DJF 1997 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 1998 CL 71.8 0.5 B5 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 1998 CL 72.1 0.6 B5 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 1998 CL 72.8 0.5 B5 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 1998 CL 73.9 0.5 B5 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 1998 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 1998 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 1998 A5 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 1998 A5 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 1998 A5 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 1997 A5 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 1997 A5 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 1997 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 6.1 7.8 9.8
DJF 1997 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 1998 CL 72.1 0.5 B5 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 1998 CL 72.9 0.6 B5 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 1998 CL 74.2 0.5 B5 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 1998 CL 75.7 0.5 B5 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 1998 A5 77.3 0.5 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 1998 A5 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 1998 A5 78.9 0.5 CL 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 1998 A5 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 1998 A5 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 1997 A5 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 1997 A5 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 1997 CL 75.2 0.4 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
DJF 1997 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 1998 CL 73.4 0.5 B5 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 1998 CL 74.4 0.6 B5 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 1998 CL 75.9 0.5 B5 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 1998 CL 77.6 0.5 B5 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 1998 A5 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 1998 A5 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 1998 A5 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 1998 A5 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 1998 A5 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
SON 1997 A5 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 1997 A5 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 1997 CL 73.7 0.4 CL 10.8 13.6 16.7
DJF 1997 B5 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 1998 B10 72.0 0.6 B5 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 1998 B5 72.8 0.7 B5 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 1998 B5 74.1 0.5 B5 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 1998 CL 75.8 0.5 B5 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 1998 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 1998 A5 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 1998 A5 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 1998 A5 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 1998 A5 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 18 1997.