Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY NOVEMBER 14 1996
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - DECEMBER 1996
SST ANOMALIES IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ARE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN APPROXIMATELY
THAT WAY THROUGH DECEMBER. SSTS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE
LOCALLY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN DECEMBER. CANONICAL
CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT
ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LIHUE WITH SOME CONFIDENCE. IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY FORECAST SIGNALS - THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST IS FOR
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES FOR DECEMBER.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A3 72.4 0.5 CL 6.7 9.8 13.8
KAHULUI A8 73.1 0.5 CL 1.8 2.6 3.7
HONOLULU A5 74.1 0.5 CL 1.6 2.7 4.2
LIHUE CL 72.8 0.5 CL 2.4 3.9 5.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION DEC-JAN-FEB 96/7 TO DEC-JAN-FEB 97/8
EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS - WITH AN
UPWARD TREND THEREAFTER BEGINNING IN THE BOREAL SPRING. FORECAST
SST ANOMALIES IN THE ENSO-SENSITIVE REGION OF THE PACIFIC ARE TOO
NEAR NORMAL TO APPLY ENSO SIGNALS TO THIS FORECAST BEYOND WHAT IS
AUTOMATICALLY APPLIED BY CCA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED AT SOME OF THE HAWAIIAN STATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF 1996 CONTINUING INTO EARLY 1997 AND AGAIN FROM LATE SUMMER 1997
THROUGH FALL AND INTO THE FOLLOWING WINTER. CCA INDICATES BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WINTER THROUGH LATE SPRING 1997 AT
MOST OF THE STATIONS - WITH STRONGEST AND MOST SIGNIFICANT
ANOMALIES FORECAST FOR LIHUE. OTHERWISE - THE FORECASTS ARE
GENERALLY FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES.
PRECIPITATION INDICATIONS ARE GENERALLY VERY WEAK AND
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE THE BEST BET AT ALL LEADS EXCEPT
AT LIHUE IN JFM AND FMA97 WHERE THERE IS A MODERATELY ENHANCED
PROBABILITY FOR WET CONDITIONS - AND AT KAHULUI WHERE THERE ARE
WEAK TILTS IN THE PROBABILITIES TOWARD WET CONDITIONS DURING FMA
AND MAM 1997 AND AGAIN IN JAS 1997.
CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS
THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW
CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY
THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL
CLASS.
NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL ONLY
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1996 A2 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 1997 A2 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 1997 A1 72.1 0.6 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 1997 CL 72.8 0.5 B2 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 1997 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 1997 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 1997 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 1997 A1 76.1 0.4 A1 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 1997 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 1997 A1 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 1997 A1 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 1997 A1 72.8 0.4 CL 30.2 38.5 48.2
DJF 1997 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1996 A5 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 1997 A2 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 1997 A1 72.9 0.6 A2 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 1997 B1 74.2 0.5 A1 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 1997 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 1997 N4 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 1997 CL 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 1997 A2 78.9 0.5 A1 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 1997 A2 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 1997 A3 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 1997 A5 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 1997 A3 73.9 0.4 CL 6.1 7.8 9.8
DJF 1997 A4 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1996 N5 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 1997 N4 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 1997 B2 74.4 0.6 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 1997 B4 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 1997 CL 77.6 0.5 CL 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 1997 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 1997 CL 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 1997 N4 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 1997 A2 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 1997 A5 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 1997 A3 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 1997 A2 75.2 0.4 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
DJF 1997 A2 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1996 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 1997 B2 72.0 0.6 A4 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 1997 B5 72.8 0.7 A4 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 1997 B7 74.1 0.5 A1 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 1997 B2 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 1997 B1 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 1997 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 1997 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 1997 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 1997 A4 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 1997 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 1997 A2 73.7 0.4 CL 10.8 13.6 16.7
DJF 1997 A2 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH.
NOTE - THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY DECEMBER 19 1996.
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