Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EST THURSDAY NOVEMBER 16 1995 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - DECEMBER 1995: BELOW NORMAL SST ANOMALIES HAVE STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST MONTH IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WHILE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SST ANOMALIES HAVE REMAINED NEAR AND SOUTH OF HAWAII. ALTHOUGH THE BELOW NORMAL SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST WEEK - THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE DUE TO INTRASASONAL VARIABILITY AND SSTS ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AT LEAST THROUGH THE WINTER. IN THE VICINITY OF HAWAII THE SSTS ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH NORMAL VALUES. FORECASTS FROM CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) SHOW MODERATE AMPLITUDES AND CONFIDENCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT KAHULUI AND HONOLULU - MORE WEAKLY AT LIHUE AND NO DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATOLOGY AT HILO. THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO DEPART FROM CLIMATOLOGY AT ANY OF THE STATIONS. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO CL 72.4 0.5 CL 6.7 9.8 13.8 KAHULUI A5 73.1 0.5 CL 1.8 2.6 3.7 HONOLULU A4 74.1 0.5 CL 1.6 2.7 4.2 LIHUE A2 72.8 0.5 CL 2.4 3.9 5.8 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - DEC-JAN-FEB 95-96 TO DEC-JAN-FEB 96-97: FORECASTS FROM CCA SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES HAVE A TILT IN THE WARM DIRECTION FOR MOST SEASONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT KAHULUI AND HONOLULU DURING THE SUMMER AND AT HONOLULU AND LIHUE DURING THE FALL - WITH LESSER CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE. THESE INDICATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THOSE FROM THE LAST FORECAST - PERHAPS DUE TO THE DEVELOPING COLD ENSO PATTERN. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR A DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATLOLOGY AT HILO EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD WARMTH DURING THE FALL SEASONS NEXT YEAR. THE CCA FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVE VERY FEW INDICATIONS DURING MOST SEASONS EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT TILTS TOWARD WETNESS AT LIHUE DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING - DRYNESS AT LIHUE AND HONOLULU DURING AMJ AND WETNESS AT HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND HILO FROM SUMMER THROUGH EARLY FALL. CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL ONLY HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 1995 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 JFM 1996 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1 FMA 1996 CL 72.1 0.6 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7 MAM 1996 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1 AMJ 1996 CL 73.9 0.5 CL 24.2 29.4 35.4 MJJ 1996 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0 JJA 1996 CL 75.8 0.4 A2 19.7 23.8 28.5 JAS 1996 CL 76.1 0.4 A5 22.0 26.2 30.9 ASO 1996 A2 76.0 0.4 A2 23.3 26.6 30.3 SON 1996 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4 OND 1996 A1 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7 NDJ 1996 CL 72.8 0.4 CL 30.2 38.5 48.2 DJF 1996 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 1995 A2 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 JFM 1996 A1 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1 FMA 1996 A1 72.9 0.6 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5 MAM 1996 A1 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1 AMJ 1996 A2 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1 MJJ 1996 A4 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6 JJA 1996 A2 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3 JAS 1996 A2 78.9 0.5 A4 0.8 1.1 1.4 ASO 1996 A2 78.6 0.5 A1 1.2 1.7 2.4 SON 1996 A3 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8 OND 1996 A1 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1 NDJ 1996 A1 73.9 0.4 CL 6.1 7.8 9.8 DJF 1996 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 1995 A3 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 JFM 1996 A2 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 FMA 1996 N2 74.4 0.6 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8 MAM 1996 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5 AMJ 1996 A1 77.6 0.5 B1 1.5 2.4 3.6 MJJ 1996 A1 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5 JJA 1996 A1 80.4 0.5 A2 0.9 1.3 1.8 JAS 1996 A3 81.0 0.5 A2 1.3 1.7 2.1 ASO 1996 A4 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0 SON 1996 A4 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9 OND 1996 A5 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 NDJ 1996 CL 75.2 0.4 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 DJF 1996 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV DJF 1995 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 JFM 1996 N1 72.0 0.6 A2 9.1 11.9 15.3 FMA 1996 N1 72.8 0.7 A2 7.8 10.0 12.6 MAM 1996 N3 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3 AMJ 1996 CL 75.8 0.5 B2 5.8 7.5 9.5 MJJ 1996 A2 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0 JJA 1996 A2 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2 JAS 1996 A2 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0 ASO 1996 A2 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7 SON 1996 A2 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8 OND 1996 A3 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1 NDJ 1996 A3 73.7 0.4 CL 10.8 13.6 16.7 DJF 1996 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH. NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY DECEMBER 14 1995. NNNN NNNN