Long-Lead Outlook for Hawaiian Islands (reproduced with permission, NOAA CPC)

Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY NOVEMBER 16 1995

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS

MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - DECEMBER 1995:

BELOW NORMAL SST ANOMALIES HAVE STRENGTHENED DURING THE
PAST MONTH IN THE EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WHILE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE  NORMAL SST ANOMALIES HAVE REMAINED NEAR AND SOUTH OF
HAWAII.   ALTHOUGH THE BELOW NORMAL SSTS ALONG THE EQUATOR
HAVE WEAKENED  SLIGHTLY IN THE PAST WEEK - THIS IS BELIEVED TO
BE DUE TO  INTRASASONAL VARIABILITY AND SSTS ARE PREDICTED TO
REMAIN  SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL OVER THE EASTERN
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC  AT LEAST THROUGH THE WINTER.  IN THE
VICINITY OF HAWAII THE  SSTS ARE PREDICTED TO APPROACH
NORMAL VALUES.  FORECASTS FROM  CANONICAL CORRELATION
ANALYSIS (CCA) SHOW MODERATE AMPLITUDES  AND CONFIDENCE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT KAHULUI AND  HONOLULU - MORE
WEAKLY AT LIHUE AND NO DEPARTURE FROM  CLIMATOLOGY AT HILO. 
THERE WERE NO INDICATIONS FOR THE  PRECIPITATION TO DEPART
FROM CLIMATOLOGY AT ANY OF THE  STATIONS. 

            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV
HILO       CL  72.4  0.5      CL      6.7      9.8     13.8
KAHULUI    A5  73.1  0.5      CL      1.8      2.6      3.7
HONOLULU   A4  74.1  0.5      CL      1.6      2.7      4.2
LIHUE      A2  72.8  0.5      CL      2.4      3.9      5.8


SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - DEC-JAN-FEB 95-96 TO 
DEC-JAN-FEB 96-97:

FORECASTS FROM CCA SUGGEST THAT TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES
HAVE A TILT IN THE WARM DIRECTION FOR MOST SEASONS WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT KAHULUI AND HONOLULU DURING THE
SUMMER AND AT HONOLULU AND LIHUE DURING THE FALL - WITH
LESSER CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE.  THESE INDICATIONS ARE SOMEWHAT
WEAKER THAN THOSE FROM THE LAST FORECAST - PERHAPS DUE TO
THE DEVELOPING COLD ENSO PATTERN.  THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
FOR A DEPARTURE FROM CLIMATLOLOGY AT HILO EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
TILT TOWARD WARMTH DURING THE FALL SEASONS NEXT YEAR.

THE CCA FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVE VERY FEW
INDICATIONS DURING MOST SEASONS EXCEPT FOR SLIGHT TILTS
TOWARD WETNESS AT LIHUE DURING LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING
- DRYNESS AT LIHUE AND HONOLULU DURING AMJ AND WETNESS AT
HONOLULU - KAHULUI AND HILO FROM SUMMER THROUGH EARLY FALL.   

CLARIFICATION.  CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE -
NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST.  A5 (EXAMPLE)
MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS.  B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS
A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS.  N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS
A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.

NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL ONLY

                        HILO
            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

DJF 1995   CL  71.9  0.5      CL     19.8     27.1     36.1
JFM 1996   CL  71.8  0.5      CL     22.8     30.2     39.1
FMA 1996   CL  72.1  0.6      CL     30.5     37.2     44.7
MAM 1996   CL  72.8  0.5      CL     30.4     36.8     44.1
AMJ 1996   CL  73.9  0.5      CL     24.2     29.4     35.4
MJJ 1996   CL  75.0  0.5      CL     20.5     24.5     29.0
JJA 1996   CL  75.8  0.4      A2     19.7     23.8     28.5
JAS 1996   CL  76.1  0.4      A5     22.0     26.2     30.9	
ASO 1996   A2  76.0  0.4      A2     23.3     26.6     30.3
SON 1996   A2  75.3  0.4      CL     25.7     31.2     37.4
OND 1996   A1  74.1  0.4      CL     27.1     33.9     41.7
NDJ 1996   CL  72.8  0.4      CL     30.2     38.5     48.2
DJF 1996   CL  71.9  0.5      CL     19.8     27.1     36.1
 
                        KAHULUI
            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

DJF 1995   A2  72.2  0.5      CL      6.9      9.0     11.5
JFM 1996   A1  72.1  0.5      CL      6.7      8.7     11.1
FMA 1996   A1  72.9  0.6      CL      4.7      6.4      8.5
MAM 1996   A1  74.2  0.5      CL      3.0      4.4      6.1
AMJ 1996   A2  75.7  0.5      CL      1.1      1.9      3.1
MJJ 1996   A4  77.3  0.6      CL      0.6      1.0      1.6
JJA 1996   A2  78.5  0.5      CL      0.6      0.9      1.3
JAS 1996   A2  78.9  0.5      A4      0.8      1.1      1.4
ASO 1996   A2  78.6  0.5      A1      1.2      1.7      2.4
SON 1996   A3  77.4  0.5      CL      2.4      3.4      4.8
OND 1996   A1  75.5  0.5      CL      4.8      6.3      8.1
NDJ 1996   A1  73.9  0.4      CL      6.1      7.8      9.8
DJF 1996   CL  72.2  0.5      CL      6.9      9.0     11.5
      
                        HONOLULU
            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

DJF 1995   A3  73.3  0.4      CL      6.2      8.3     10.9
JFM 1996   A2  73.4  0.5      CL      5.0      6.9      9.1
FMA 1996   N2  74.4  0.6      CL      3.7      5.1      6.8
MAM 1996   CL  75.9  0.5      CL      2.5      3.8      5.5
AMJ 1996   A1  77.6  0.5      B1      1.5      2.4      3.6
MJJ 1996   A1  79.1  0.5      CL      1.1      1.7      2.5
JJA 1996   A1  80.4  0.5      A2      0.9      1.3      1.8
JAS 1996   A3  81.0  0.5      A2      1.3      1.7      2.1
ASO 1996   A4  80.7  0.5      CL      1.8      2.8      4.0
SON 1996   A4  79.3  0.5      CL      3.6      5.1      6.9
OND 1996   A5  77.0  0.5      CL      6.0      8.0     10.4
NDJ 1996   CL  75.2  0.4      CL      6.0      8.0     10.4
DJF 1996   CL  73.3  0.4      CL      6.2      8.3     10.9

                        LIHUE
            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

DJF 1995   CL  72.0  0.5      CL     10.5     13.3     16.6
JFM 1996   N1  72.0  0.6      A2      9.1     11.9     15.3
FMA 1996   N1  72.8  0.7      A2      7.8     10.0     12.6
MAM 1996   N3  74.1  0.6      CL      7.7      9.9     12.3
AMJ 1996   CL  75.8  0.5      B2      5.8      7.5      9.5
MJJ 1996   A2  77.5  0.4      CL      4.9      6.3      8.0
JJA 1996   A2  78.7  0.4      CL      4.5      5.3      6.2
JAS 1996   A2  79.2  0.4      CL      4.9      5.9      7.0
ASO 1996   A2  78.7  0.4      CL      6.2      7.8      9.7
SON 1996   A2  77.4  0.4      CL      9.3     11.4     13.8
OND 1996   A3  75.3  0.4      CL     10.8     13.7     17.1
NDJ 1996   A3  73.7  0.4      CL     10.8     13.6     16.7
DJF 1996   CL  72.0  0.5      CL     10.5     13.3     16.6
 
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START
OF THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS
AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO -
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE
NEW SET NEXT MONTH.

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY DECEMBER 14 1995.

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