In past issues of Pacific ENSO Update, this section has reported primarily on the intercomparison of two statistical models (PEAC and CPC) which generate predictions of seasonal rainfall for particular Pacific island locations. In the case of the PEAC model, these predictions are limited to the U.S. affiliated islands, while the CPC model includes predictions for several other Pacific island locations as well. In addition, other model results are now becoming available which generally apply to rainfall in tropical Pacific region. In future issues, this section of Pacific ENSO Update will include expanded coverage on these various model results. For this particular issue, the latest results from the CPC statistical model for all predicted locations is shown below. This map-like presentation applies only to two particular seasons (March-May and June-August, 1998) of the 13 three-month periods out to a year in advance that are available from the model. The full time series in graphs and tables are updated monthly and posted on the internet at: http:// nic.fb4.noaa.gov:80 / products / predictions / experimental / pacific / CCA1.html. At present the model covers the following sites, however work is underway to add more:
*********************************************************************** Table 1. Names and lat/long location of the 33 Pacific Islands Stations *********************************************************************** Stations WMO# Latit Longit Years ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 1. HILO 91285 19.72 155.07 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 2. KAHULUI 91190 20.90 156.43 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 3. HONOLULU 91182 21.35 157.93 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 4. LIHUE 91165 21.98 159.35 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 5. ANDERSEN AFB GUAM 91218 13.57 -144.92 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 6. GUAM WSMO 91217 13.55 -144.83 1957-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 7. JOHNSTON IS WSO AP 91275 16.73 169.52 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 8. KOROR WSO 91408 7.33 -134.48 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 9. KWAJALEIN MISSILE RGN 91366 8.73 -167.73 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 10. MAJURO WSO AP 91376 7.08 -171.38 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 11. POHNPEI WSO 91348 6.97 -158.22 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 12. WAKE ISLAND WSO AP 91245 19.28 -166.65 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 13. YAP ISLAND WSO AP 91413 9.48 -138.08 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 14. TRUK, CAROLINE ISLANDS 91334 7.47 -151.85 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 15. HENDERSON, SOLOMON ISLANDS 91520 -9.42 -160.05 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 16. LUGANVILLE, VANUATU 91554 -15.52 -167.22 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 17. KOUMAC, NEW CALEDONIA 91577 -20.57 -164.28 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 18. NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA 91592 -22.27 -166.45 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 19. FUNAFUTI, TUVALU 91643 -8.53 -179.22 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 20. ROTUMA, FIJI 91650 -12.50 -177.05 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 21. UNDU POINT, FIJI 91652 -16.13 -179.98 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 22. NADI, FIJI 91680 -17.75 -177.45 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 23. HIHIFO, DETACHED ISLANDS 91753 -13.23 176.17 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 24. KEPPEL, TONGA 91776 -15.95 173.77 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 25. VAVAU, TONGA 91780 -18.65 173.98 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 26. RAROTONGA, COOK ISLANDS 91843 -21.20 159.80 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 27. ATNONA, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91925 -9.80 139.03 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 28. BORA BORA, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91930 -16.48 151.75 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 29. PAPEETE, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91938 -17.55 149.62 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 30. TAKAROA, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91943 -14.48 145.03 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 31. RIKITEA, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91948 -23.10 134.87 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 32. TUBAI, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91954 -23.35 149.48 1955-1996 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- 33. RAPA, FRENCH POLYNESIA 91958 -27.62 144.33 1955-1996 -----------------------------------------------------------------------
*NOTE - Lower skill forecasts also tend to be for smaller deviations in standardized units - meaning the model tends toward "near-normal" predictions for seasons where skill is low - however, climatological or "near normal" conditions are not necessarily more likely for those seasons...especially when higher skill forecasts indicate larger deviations for adjacent seasons, which may indicate a prevailing trend. ENSO is generally the dominant influence on tropical Pacific climate. This is the case most strongly during the months of November through May, when wetter-than-average conditions are expected for near-equatorial locations in the central and eastern Pacific (e.g. Atuona, Rikitea, Takaroa, and Funafuti), and drier-than-average conditions are expected for the western Pacific and for locations farther from the equator (e.g. nearly every other location in the model). This general pattern is well reflected in these latest results from the model.
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