Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EDT THURSDAY MAY 15 1997
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - JUNE 1997
THE SSTS OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FROM WEST OF THE
DATELINE EASTWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA ARE NOW
WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. CANONICAL
CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) FORECASTS REFLECT THE INFLUENCE
OF THE LOCAL SSTS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST
FOR HILO - KAHULUI - AND HONOLULU. THERE IS A LARGE AREA
OF BELOW NORMAL SSTS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THAT MAY MODERATE TEMPERATURES AT LIHUE WHERE CCA
PREDICTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION
FORECAST IS FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES AT ALL FOUR
LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A3 75.2 0.5 CL 4.6 5.7 7.0
KAHULUI A3 77.4 0.6 CL 0.0 0.1 0.2
HONOLULU A3 79.4 0.5 CL 0.1 0.3 0.5
LIHUE N2 77.8 0.4 CL 1.1 1.5 1.9
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION JUN-JUL-AUG 97 TO JUN-JUL-AUG 98:
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR.
MOST DYNAMIC SST PREDICTION MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC THROUGH EARLY 1998. THE PREDICTABILITY OF ENSO
CONDITIONS IMPROVES MARKEDLY ONCE THE LATE SPRING SST PATTERNS
BECOME ESTABLISHED. THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF WARMER THAN
NORMAL SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC IN RECENT WEEKS SUGGESTS
THAT WARM ENSO CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR NEXT FALL AND WINTER.
BECAUSE CCA USES SEASONAL MEAN SST DATA THROUGH FMA - ITS
FORECASTS MAY NOT FULLY REFLECT THE RECENT WARMING - WHICH
COMES AT A VERY CRITICAL TIME OF YEAR FOR PREDICTABILITY.
THE FORECASTS WERE ADJUSTED ON THE BASIS OF TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION COMPOSITES BASED ON YEARS WHERE THE SIGN OF THE
SST ANOMALY IN THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC CHANGED FROM
NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE IN THE EARLY PART OF THE YEAR.
TEMPERATURE FORECASTS SHOW PREDOMINANTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH SON AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT LIHUE WHERE NEAR NORMAL OR
CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATED IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS.
COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BY CCA BEGINING IN
NDJ 1997/1998 AND EXTENDING THROUGH EARLY 1998. THESE FORECASTS
AGREE WELL WITH THOSE DERIVED FROM THE TEMPERATURE COMPOSITES.
CCA FORECASTS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT HILO BY THE MIDDLE OF 1998.
CCA HAD LITTLE TO SAY FOR THIS CYCLE OF FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION
AT ANY LEAD EXCEPT FOR A HINT OF ABOVE MEDIAN RAINFALL AT HILO AND
KAHULUI IN LATE SUMMER AND A FORECAST OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION
AT HONOLULU FOR JJA 1998. HOWEVER - ENSO BASED COMPOSITE FORECASTS
FOR PRECIPITATION INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS EARLY IN 1998. THE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT
THE ADDED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WARM ENSO CONDITIONS NEXT
WINTER. THUS - BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN
CERTIAN SEASONS AND LOCATIONS IN THE EARLY PART OF 1998. THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE PROBABILITIES AND REGIONAL DISTRIBUTION ARE BASED
ON THE CCA SKILL ESTIMATES - WHICH ARE NOT INFLUENCED BY THIS YEARS
EXPECTED ENSO CONDITIONS.
CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT
NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL
CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS.
B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A
2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL ONLY
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 1997 A5 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 1997 A3 76.1 0.4 A5 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 1997 A3 76.0 0.4 A2 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 1997 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 1997 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 1997 B2 72.8 0.4 CL 30.2 38.5 48.2
DJF 1997 B2 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 1998 B1 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 1998 B1 72.1 0.6 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 1998 CL 72.8 0.5 B1 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 1998 CL 73.9 0.5 B5 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 1998 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 1998 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 1997 A2 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 1997 A3 78.9 0.5 A2 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 1997 A2 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 1997 A2 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 1997 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 1997 CL 73.9 0.4 CL 6.1 7.8 9.8
DJF 1997 B1 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 1998 B2 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 1998 CL 72.9 0.6 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 1998 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 1998 CL 75.7 0.5 B2 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 1998 CL 77.3 0.5 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 1998 A2 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 1997 A2 80.4 0.5 CL 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 1997 A2 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 1997 N3 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 1997 A2 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 1997 N3 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 1997 CL 75.2 0.4 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
DJF 1997 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 1998 B3 73.4 0.5 B2 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 1998 B2 74.4 0.6 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 1998 B5 75.9 0.5 B3 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 1998 B1 77.6 0.5 B1 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 1998 A3 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 1998 A2 80.4 0.5 A2 0.9 1.3 1.8
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
JJA 1997 N2 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 1997 CL 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 1997 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 1997 A2 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 1997 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 1997 CL 73.7 0.4 CL 10.8 13.6 16.7
DJF 1997 B3 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 1998 B5 72.0 0.6 B3 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 1998 B2 72.8 0.7 B5 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 1998 B4 74.1 0.5 B5 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 1998 B1 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 1998 CL 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 1998 A3 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH. THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY JUNE 19 1997.
Back to Pacific ENSO Update - 2nd Quarter 1997- Vol.3 No.2