Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY JANUARY 18 1996
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - FEBRUARY 1996
MODERATE BELOW NORMAL SST ANOMALIES CONTINUE IN THE EAST-CENTRAL
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC WHILE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL SST ANOMALIES HAVE
REMAINED NEAR HAWAII. SSTS ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THROUGH WINTER. IN
THE VICINITY OF HAWAII THE SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT GRADUALLY
TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. FORECASTS FROM CANONICAL CORRELATION
ANALYSIS (CCA) SHOW WEAK AMPLITUDES AND MODEST CONFIDENCE FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AT KAHULUI AND HONOLULU - AND WEAK
ANOMALIES AND CONFIDENCE AT HILO AND LIHUE. THERE WERE NO
INDICATIONS FOR PRECIPITATION TO DEPART FROM CLIMATOLOGY AT HILO
AND HONOLULU - AND ONLY WEAK TILTS TOWARD NEAR MEDIAN AND ABOVE
MEDIAN RAINFALL AT KAHULUI AND LIHUE RESPECTIVELY.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO N2 71.7 0.6 CL 4.1 7.1 11.3
KAHULUI A5 71.8 0.6 N2 1.4 2.2 3.2
HONOLULU A2 72.9 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
LIHUE N2 71.6 0.7 A2 1.7 2.6 3.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - FEB-MAR-APR 96 TO FEB-MAR-APR 97
FORECASTS FROM CCA SUGGEST TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES THAT HAVE A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD WARMTH FOR SOME SEASONS...EXCEPT FOR
HILO...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT HONOLULU AND KAHULUI IN EARLY
SUMMER 1996. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR A DEPARTURE FROM
CLIMATLOLOGY AT HILO. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT TEMPERATURES
ARE MOST LIKELY TO AVERAGE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CATEGORY FROM FMA
THROUGH EARLY TO MID SUMMER AT LIHUE AND HILO.
THE CCA FORECASTS FOR PRECIPITATION GIVE VERY FEW INDICATIONS
DURING MOST SEASONS EXCEPT FOR A TILT TOWARD WETNESS AT LIHUE
DURING FMA 96 AND WEAKER WETNESS INDICATIONS FOR KAHULUI AND
HONOLULU IN JAS 96.
CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS
THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW
NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER
THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN
THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL
PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW
CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY
THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL
CLASS.
NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL ONLY
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 1996 N2 72.1 0.6 N2 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 1996 N2 72.8 0.5 N2 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 1996 N2 73.9 0.5 N2 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 1996 N2 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 1996 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 1996 CL 76.1 0.4 CL 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 1996 N2 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 1996 N2 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 1996 N2 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 1996 N2 72.8 0.4 CL 30.2 38.5 48.2
DJF 1996 N2 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 1997 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 1997 CL 72.1 0.6 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 1996 A3 72.9 0.6 N2 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 1996 A3 74.2 0.5 N2 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 1996 A3 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 1996 A5 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 1996 A3 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 1996 A2 78.9 0.5 A2 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 1996 A3 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 1996 A3 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 1996 A3 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 1996 N3 73.9 0.4 CL 6.1 7.8 9.8
DJF 1996 N2 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 1997 N2 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 1997 CL 72.9 0.6 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 1996 N5 74.4 0.6 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 1996 N4 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 1996 A5 77.6 0.5 N2 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 1996 A5 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 1996 N5 80.4 0.5 A2 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 1996 N6 81.0 0.5 CL 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 1996 N5 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 1996 N5 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 1996 A3 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 1996 N2 75.2 0.4 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
DJF 1996 N2 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 1997 N2 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 1997 N2 74.4 0.6 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
FMA 1996 N2 72.8 0.7 A6 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 1996 N2 74.1 0.6 N3 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 1996 N3 75.8 0.5 CL 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 1996 N5 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 1996 N3 78.7 0.4 CL 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 1996 N3 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 1996 A3 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 1996 A3 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 1996 A2 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 1996 N2 73.7 0.4 CL 10.8 13.6 16.7
DJF 1996 N2 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 1997 B2 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 1997 N2 72.8 0.7 N2 7.8 10.0 12.6
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH.
NOTE - THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY FEBRUARY 15 1996.
NNNN
NNNN