Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC 3 PM EST THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12 1998 PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - MARCH 1998 THE SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FROM THE DATELINE EASTWARD TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE NOW ABOUT NORMAL AT THE BIG ISLAND COOLING TO 1/2 DEGREE C BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN THERE AND LIHUE. THE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL SST IS EXPECTED TO REOCCUPY ALL THE ISLANDS FOR THE COMING 2-3 MONTHS. A MATURE WARM ENSO EVENT TENDS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL SSTS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE GENERALLY OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL HAWAIIAN AIR TEMPERATURES DURING EL NINO WINTERS. CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) SHOWS WEAK SIGNALS FOR MARCH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT AT LIHUE WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IS THEREFORE HIGHEST THERE. COMPOSITE FORECASTS FROM PAST STRONG EL NINO EVENTS INDICATE THAT WARM EVENTS ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST IS DERIVED FROM COMPOSITES OF THE 7 EVENTS WHERE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV HILO CL 72.0 0.6 B15 7.1 10.9 15.8 KAHULUI CL 72.9 0.6 B15 1.5 2.2 3.1 HONOLULU B7 74.4 0.6 B15 1.0 1.6 2.5 LIHUE B10 72.7 0.7 B15 2.1 3.3 4.7 SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION MAR-APR-MAY 98 TO MAR-APR-MAY 99 CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE SPRING - AFTER WHICH THEY WILL DECREASE TOWARDS NORMAL BY SOMETIME IN LATE SUMMER. THE FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY COMPOSITE MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR PAST WARM ENSO EVENTS. BEYOND THE AMJ TARGET SEASON THE FORECASTS ARE ENTIRELY BASED ON THE CCA TOOL WHICH UNDER THE PRESENT CONDITIONS IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY EL NINO CONSIDERATIONS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED IN MAM 1998 AT ALL LOCATIONS - LINGERING ON LONGER AT HONOLULU AND LIHUE. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL - AFTER WHICH THE TEMPERATURE SIGNAL BECOMES WEAK AND ERRATIC UNTIL WINTER 1998/99 WHEN A TENDENCY TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS PREDICTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE BELOW MEDIAN THROUGH AMJ AT ALL LOCATIONS. THERE ARE HINTS OF SOME ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT MOST LOCATIONS IN MIDDLE AND LATE SUMMER 1998. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL AND ENSO CONSIDERATIONS ONLY HILO TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 1998 N2 72.8 0.5 B15 30.4 36.8 44.1 AMJ 1998 CL 73.9 0.5 B5 24.2 29.4 35.4 MJJ 1998 A2 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0 JJA 1998 A2 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5 JAS 1998 A2 76.1 0.4 A5 22.0 26.2 30.9 ASO 1998 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3 SON 1998 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4 OND 1998 CL 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7 NDJ 1998 A2 72.7 0.4 CL 27.0 34.0 42.2 DJF 1998 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1 JFM 1999 CL 71.8 0.5 CL 22.8 30.2 39.1 FMA 1999 CL 72.1 0.5 CL 30.5 37.2 44.7 MAM 1999 CL 72.8 0.5 CL 30.4 36.8 44.1 KAHULUI TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 1998 N2 74.2 0.5 B10 3.0 4.4 6.1 AMJ 1998 N3 75.7 0.5 B5 1.1 1.9 3.1 MJJ 1998 A5 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6 JJA 1998 A6 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3 JAS 1998 A5 78.9 0.5 A5 0.8 1.1 1.4 ASO 1998 CL 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4 SON 1998 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8 OND 1998 A2 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1 NDJ 1998 A3 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4 DJF 1998 CL 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5 JFM 1999 B2 72.1 0.5 CL 6.7 8.7 11.1 FMA 1999 CL 72.9 0.5 CL 4.7 6.4 8.5 MAM 1999 CL 74.2 0.5 CL 3.0 4.4 6.1 HONOLULU TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 1998 B5 75.9 0.5 B10 2.5 3.8 5.5 AMJ 1998 B3 77.6 0.5 B5 1.5 2.4 3.6 MJJ 1998 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5 JJA 1998 CL 80.4 0.5 A4 0.9 1.3 1.8 JAS 1998 A5 81.0 0.5 A5 1.3 1.7 2.1 ASO 1998 A6 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0 SON 1998 A4 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9 OND 1998 A2 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4 NDJ 1998 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4 DJF 1998 B2 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9 JFM 1999 B5 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1 FMA 1999 B4 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8 MAM 1999 CL 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5 LIHUE TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV MAM 1998 B11 74.1 0.6 B10 7.7 9.9 12.3 AMJ 1998 B8 75.8 0.5 B5 5.8 7.5 9.5 MJJ 1998 B5 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0 JJA 1998 A2 78.7 0.4 A4 4.5 5.3 6.2 JAS 1998 A4 79.2 0.4 CL 4.9 5.9 7.0 ASO 1998 CL 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7 SON 1998 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8 OND 1998 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1 NDJ 1998 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7 DJF 1998 B3 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6 JFM 1999 B5 72.0 0.6 CL 9.1 11.9 15.3 FMA 1999 B2 72.8 0.6 CL 7.8 10.0 12.6 MAM 1999 CL 74.1 0.6 CL 7.7 9.9 12.3 NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH. NOTE - THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY MARCH 19 1998. NNNN NNNN
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