Long-Lead Outlook for Hawaiian Islands (reproduced with permission, NOAA CPC)

Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE  WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY FEBRUARY 12 1998

PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS

MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - MARCH 1998

THE SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FROM THE DATELINE EASTWARD 
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE 
NORMAL.  TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS 
ARE NOW ABOUT NORMAL AT THE BIG ISLAND COOLING TO 1/2 DEGREE C 
BELOW NORMAL BETWEEN THERE AND LIHUE.  THE SOMEWHAT BELOW 
NORMAL SST IS EXPECTED TO REOCCUPY ALL THE ISLANDS FOR THE 
COMING 2-3 MONTHS. A MATURE WARM ENSO EVENT TENDS TO BE 
ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW NORMAL SSTS IN THE VICINITY AND TO THE 
NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE 
GENERALLY OBSERVED BELOW NORMAL HAWAIIAN AIR TEMPERATURES 
DURING EL NINO WINTERS.  CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS (CCA) 
SHOWS WEAK SIGNALS FOR MARCH TEMPERATURES EXCEPT AT LIHUE 
WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS FORECAST.  CONFIDENCE IN THE 
TEMPERATURE PREDICTION IS THEREFORE HIGHEST THERE.  COMPOSITE 
FORECASTS FROM PAST STRONG EL NINO EVENTS INDICATE THAT WARM 
EVENTS ARE GENERALLY ASSOCIATED WITH BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION 
IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  THE STRENGTH OF THE FORECAST IS 
DERIVED FROM COMPOSITES OF THE 7 EVENTS WHERE EQUATORIAL 
PACIFIC SSTS TO THE SOUTH OF HAWAII WERE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE 
NORMAL.  


            TEMPERATURE                 PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM        FCST    BLW    MEDIAN     ABV
HILO       CL  72.0  0.6         B15    7.1     10.9     15.8 
KAHULUI    CL  72.9  0.6         B15    1.5      2.2      3.1
HONOLULU   B7  74.4  0.6         B15    1.0      1.6      2.5
LIHUE      B10 72.7  0.7         B15    2.1      3.3      4.7


SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION MAR-APR-MAY 98 TO MAR-APR-MAY 99

CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO 
REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH LATE SPRING - AFTER WHICH THEY 
WILL DECREASE TOWARDS NORMAL BY SOMETIME IN LATE SUMMER.  THE 
FORECASTS FOR THE FIRST FEW LEADS IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY 
COMPOSITE MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FOR PAST WARM ENSO 
EVENTS.  BEYOND THE AMJ TARGET SEASON THE FORECASTS ARE 
ENTIRELY BASED ON THE CCA TOOL WHICH UNDER THE PRESENT 
CONDITIONS IS HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY EL NINO CONSIDERATIONS.  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED IN MAM 1998 AT ALL 
LOCATIONS - LINGERING ON LONGER AT HONOLULU AND LIHUE.  ABOVE 
NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR IN THE SUMMER AND EARLY FALL - AFTER 
WHICH THE TEMPERATURE SIGNAL BECOMES WEAK AND ERRATIC UNTIL 
WINTER 1998/99 WHEN A TENDENCY TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES 
IS PREDICTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.  PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE 
BELOW MEDIAN THROUGH AMJ AT ALL LOCATIONS.  THERE ARE HINTS OF 
SOME ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AT MOST LOCATIONS IN 
MIDDLE AND LATE SUMMER 1998.  THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT 
CLIMATE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.

CLARIFICATION.  CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH 
MEANS THAT NO PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - 
OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS FORECAST.  A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 
5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION 
WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS.  B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER 
THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL 
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS.  N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN 
NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN 
THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.

NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL AND ENSO 
CONSIDERATIONS ONLY

                       HILO

            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

MAM 1998   N2  72.8  0.5      B15    30.4     36.8     44.1
AMJ 1998   CL  73.9  0.5      B5     24.2     29.4     35.4
MJJ 1998   A2  75.0  0.5      CL     20.5     24.5     29.0
JJA 1998   A2  75.8  0.4      CL     19.7     23.8     28.5
JAS 1998   A2  76.1  0.4      A5     22.0     26.2     30.9
ASO 1998   CL  76.0  0.4      CL     23.3     26.6     30.3
SON 1998   CL  75.3  0.4      CL     25.7     31.2     37.4
OND 1998   CL  74.1  0.4      CL     27.1     33.9     41.7
NDJ 1998   A2  72.7  0.4      CL     27.0     34.0     42.2
DJF 1998   CL  71.9  0.5      CL     19.8     27.1     36.1
JFM 1999   CL  71.8  0.5      CL     22.8     30.2     39.1
FMA 1999   CL  72.1  0.5      CL     30.5     37.2     44.7
MAM 1999   CL  72.8  0.5      CL     30.4     36.8     44.1

                       KAHULUI

            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

MAM 1998   N2  74.2  0.5      B10     3.0      4.4      6.1
AMJ 1998   N3  75.7  0.5      B5      1.1      1.9      3.1
MJJ 1998   A5  77.3  0.6      CL      0.6      1.0      1.6
JJA 1998   A6  78.5  0.5      CL      0.6      0.9      1.3
JAS 1998   A5  78.9  0.5      A5      0.8      1.1      1.4
ASO 1998   CL  78.6  0.5      CL      1.2      1.7      2.4
SON 1998   CL  77.4  0.5      CL      2.4      3.4      4.8
OND 1998   A2  75.5  0.5      CL      4.8      6.3      8.1
NDJ 1998   A3  73.5  0.4      CL      6.7      8.8     11.4
DJF 1998   CL  72.2  0.5      CL      6.9      9.0     11.5
JFM 1999   B2  72.1  0.5      CL      6.7      8.7     11.1
FMA 1999   CL  72.9  0.5      CL      4.7      6.4      8.5
MAM 1999   CL  74.2  0.5      CL      3.0      4.4      6.1
  
                         HONOLULU

            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

MAM 1998   B5  75.9  0.5      B10     2.5      3.8      5.5
AMJ 1998   B3  77.6  0.5      B5      1.5      2.4      3.6
MJJ 1998   CL  79.1  0.5      CL      1.1      1.7      2.5
JJA 1998   CL  80.4  0.5      A4      0.9      1.3      1.8
JAS 1998   A5  81.0  0.5      A5      1.3      1.7      2.1
ASO 1998   A6  80.7  0.5      CL      1.8      2.8      4.0
SON 1998   A4  79.3  0.5      CL      3.6      5.1      6.9
OND 1998   A2  77.0  0.5      CL      6.0      8.0     10.4
NDJ 1998   CL  74.7  0.4      CL      6.7      9.0     11.4
DJF 1998   B2  73.3  0.4      CL      6.2      8.3     10.9
JFM 1999   B5  73.4  0.5      CL      5.0      6.9      9.1
FMA 1999   B4  74.4  0.5      CL      3.7      5.1      6.8
MAM 1999   CL  75.9  0.5      CL      2.5      3.8      5.5

                         LIHUE

            TEMPERATURE               PRECIPITATION
          FCST  AVE  LIM     FCST     BLW    MEDIAN     ABV

MAM 1998   B11 74.1  0.6      B10     7.7      9.9     12.3
AMJ 1998   B8  75.8  0.5      B5      5.8      7.5      9.5
MJJ 1998   B5  77.5  0.4      CL      4.9      6.3      8.0
JJA 1998   A2  78.7  0.4      A4      4.5      5.3      6.2
JAS 1998   A4  79.2  0.4      CL      4.9      5.9      7.0
ASO 1998   CL  78.7  0.4      CL      6.2      7.8      9.7
SON 1998   CL  77.4  0.4      CL      9.3     11.4     13.8
OND 1998   CL  75.3  0.4      CL     10.8     13.7     17.1
NDJ 1998   CL  73.3  0.4      CL     12.1     15.2     18.7
DJF 1998   B3  72.0  0.5      CL     10.5     13.3     16.6
JFM 1999   B5  72.0  0.6      CL      9.1     11.9     15.3
FMA 1999   B2  72.8  0.6      CL      7.8     10.0     12.6
MAM 1999   CL  74.1  0.6      CL      7.7      9.9     12.3

NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF
THEIR VALID PERIODS.  WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND
SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.  ALSO - THIS SET OF
OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH.

NOTE - THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONAL
OUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY MARCH 19 1998.

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