Editor's note: Because of its complexity, the Long-Lead Hawaiian Outlook is not intended for ready use by the public. It is reproduced here in reference to information contained elsewhere in this bulletin. Futher information on this product is available from the NOAA CPC and the National Weather Service-Pacific Region Headquarters (PRH).
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOK
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER NCEP
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WASHINGTON DC
3 PM EST THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13 1997
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
MONTHLY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION - DECEMEMBER 1997
THE SSTS IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC FROM THE DATELINE EASTWARD TO THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA CONTINUE TO BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES IN THE VICINITY OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE UP TO 1 DEGREE C ABOVE NORMAL. CANONICAL CORRELATION
ANALYSIS (CCA) FORECASTS REFLECT THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOCAL SSTS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL AIR TEMPERATURE FORECAST AT SOME STATIONS. IN CONTRAST CCA FORECASTS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE NONCOMMITAL AND HAVE LED TO PREDICTIONS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILITIES AT ALL HAWAIIAN LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO N4 72.4 0.5 CL 6.7 9.8 13.8
KAHULUI A8 73.1 0.5 CL 1.8 2.6 3.7
HONOLULU A4 74.1 0.5 CL 1.6 2.7 4.2
LIHUE CL 72.8 0.5 CL 2.4 3.9 5.8
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION DEC-JAN-FEB 97/8 TO DEC-JAN-FEB 98/9
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE COMING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING - AFTER WHICH THEY WILL
DECREASE TOWARDS NORMAL BY SOMETIME NEXT SUMMER. THE FORECASTS FOR HAWAII ARE
ENTIRELY BASED ON THE CCA TOOL WHICH UNDER THE PRESENT CONDITIONS IS HEAVILY
INFLUENCED BY EL NINO CONSIDERATIONS. AN ALTERNATIVE INTERPRETATION IS THAT
HAWAIIAN AIR TEMPERATURE REFLECTS THE LOCAL SST WHICH IN TURN DEPENDS HEAVILY
ON ENSO. CURRENTLY THE LOCAL SST IS ABOVE NORMAL BY 0.5-1.0 DEGREE C - BUT THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE TO COLDER THAN NORMAL NEAR HAWAII AS THE EXPECTED EL NINO-
RELATED STRONG SOUTH-OF-NORMAL ALEUTIAN LOW EXTRACTS HEAT FROM THE WATERS OF
THE CENTAL PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS. CONSEQUENTLY A CLEAR SHIFT
FROM INITIALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING DECEMBER TO BELOW NORMAL AIR
TEMPERATURES BY JFM 98 IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE - FIRST AND MOST STRONGLY AT
LIHUE AND LATER AT HONOLULU AND KAHULUI. A RE-EMERGENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR NEXT SUMMER AND EARLY FALL - AFTER WHICH THE
TEMPERATURE SIGNAL BECOMES WEAK AND ERRATIC. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW MEDIAN IN MOST AREAS DURING LATE WINTER AND SPRING WITH WEAK INDICATIONS
FOR A REVERSAL TO HEAVIER THAN MEDIAN PRECIPITATION BY MIDDLE AND LATE SUMMER
1998. THERE IS LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT CLIMATE SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CLARIFICATION. CL IS CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES - WHICH MEANS THAT NO
PARTICULAR TILT OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NEAR - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IS
FORECAST. A5 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 5% HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE CLASS. B3 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 3% HIGHER THAN
NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW
CLASS. N2 (EXAMPLE) MEANS A 2% HIGHER THAN NORMAL PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE
OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS.
NOTE -- THE HAWAIIAN FORECAST IS BASED ON THE CCA TOOL AND ENSO CONSIDERATIONS
ONLY
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1997 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
JFM 1998 CL 71.8 0.5 B3 22.8 30.2 39.1
FMA 1998 CL 72.1 0.5 B5 30.5 37.2 44.7
MAM 1998 CL 72.8 0.5 B4 30.4 36.8 44.1
AMJ 1998 CL 73.9 0.5 B5 24.2 29.4 35.4
MJJ 1998 CL 75.0 0.5 CL 20.5 24.5 29.0
JJA 1998 CL 75.8 0.4 CL 19.7 23.8 28.5
JAS 1998 CL 76.1 0.4 A5 22.0 26.2 30.9
ASO 1998 CL 76.0 0.4 CL 23.3 26.6 30.3
SON 1998 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 25.7 31.2 37.4
OND 1998 A2 74.1 0.4 CL 27.1 33.9 41.7
NDJ 1998 A2 72.7 0.4 CL 27.0 34.0 42.2
DJF 1998 CL 71.9 0.5 CL 19.8 27.1 36.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1997 N4 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
JFM 1998 CL 72.1 0.5 B3 6.7 8.7 11.1
FMA 1998 B4 72.9 0.5 B4 4.7 6.4 8.5
MAM 1998 B2 74.2 0.5 B3 3.0 4.4 6.1
AMJ 1998 CL 75.7 0.5 CL 1.1 1.9 3.1
MJJ 1998 A5 77.3 0.6 CL 0.6 1.0 1.6
JJA 1998 A7 78.5 0.5 CL 0.6 0.9 1.3
JAS 1998 A5 78.9 0.5 A5 0.8 1.1 1.4
ASO 1998 A2 78.6 0.5 CL 1.2 1.7 2.4
SON 1998 CL 77.4 0.5 CL 2.4 3.4 4.8
OND 1998 CL 75.5 0.5 CL 4.8 6.3 8.1
NDJ 1998 A2 73.5 0.4 CL 6.7 8.8 11.4
DJF 1998 B4 72.2 0.5 CL 6.9 9.0 11.5
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1997 N7 73.3 0.4 CL 6.2 8.3 10.9
JFM 1998 N5 73.4 0.5 CL 5.0 6.9 9.1
FMA 1998 N5 74.4 0.5 CL 3.7 5.1 6.8
MAM 1998 B5 75.9 0.5 CL 2.5 3.8 5.5
AMJ 1998 B4 77.6 0.5 B4 1.5 2.4 3.6
MJJ 1998 CL 79.1 0.5 CL 1.1 1.7 2.5
JJA 1998 A4 80.4 0.5 A3 0.9 1.3 1.8
JAS 1998 A4 81.0 0.5 A4 1.3 1.7 2.1
ASO 1998 A3 80.7 0.5 CL 1.8 2.8 4.0
SON 1998 A2 79.3 0.5 CL 3.6 5.1 6.9
OND 1998 A2 77.0 0.5 CL 6.0 8.0 10.4
NDJ 1998 CL 74.7 0.4 CL 6.7 9.0 11.4
DJF 1998 B2 73.3 0.4 A2 6.2 8.3 10.9
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
DJF 1997 CL 72.0 0.5 CL 10.5 13.3 16.6
JFM 1998 B3 72.0 0.6 B5 9.1 11.9 15.3
FMA 1998 B10 72.8 0.6 B5 7.8 10.0 12.6
MAM 1998 B12 74.1 0.6 B4 7.7 9.9 12.3
AMJ 1998 B10 75.8 0.5 B3 5.8 7.5 9.5
MJJ 1998 B5 77.5 0.4 CL 4.9 6.3 8.0
JJA 1998 CL 78.7 0.4 A2 4.5 5.3 6.2
JAS 1998 A4 79.2 0.4 A2 4.9 5.9 7.0
ASO 1998 A2 78.7 0.4 CL 6.2 7.8 9.7
SON 1998 CL 77.4 0.4 CL 9.3 11.4 13.8
OND 1998 CL 75.3 0.4 CL 10.8 13.7 17.1
NDJ 1998 CL 73.3 0.4 CL 12.1 15.2 18.7
DJF 1998 B2 72.0 0.5 A2 10.5 13.3 16.6
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OFTHEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS ANDSHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OFOUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXTMONTH.
NOTE - THE NEXT SET OF LONG LEAD-TIME MONTHLY AND SEASONALOUTLOOKS FOR HAWAII
WILL BE ISSUED THURSDAY DECEMBER 18 1997.