Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 1

Palau Flag Republic of Palau: Rainfall was abundant throughout the Republic of Palau during 2008. The 158.98 inches at the WSO was 107% of normal. Rainfall at most other Palau locations was higher than at the WSO, with the highest reading of 185.28 inches noted at the International Airport. Installed for several years now, the rain gage at the International Airport has consistently reported higher rainfall totals than at the WSO in Koror. Peleliu has a history of being drier than the WSO, and 2008 was no exception, with Peleliu’s 2008 annual total of 146.71 inches.

Republic of Palau State Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2008

Station   Oct. Nov. Dec. 4th Qtr
Annual
Koror WSO
Rainfall (inches)
18.25
17.36
11.50
47.11
158.98
% of Normal
132%
153%
96%
127%
107%
Nekken*
Rainfall (inches)
18.98
15.20
16.40
50.58
161.16
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
136%
109%
International
Airport *
Rainfall (inches)
21.49
20.92
13.59
56.00
185.28
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
151%
125%
Peleliu*
Rainfall (inches)
11.53
14.47
17.55
43.55
146.71
% of Normal
N/A
N/A
N/A
118%
100%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.

Climate Outlook: The rainfall distribution on Palau in 2009 should be similar to 2008. The normally drier months of February through May should see above average rainfall; then, the normally wetter months of June and July should see rainfall amounts near normal. Tropical cyclone influence should be slightly enhanced in both the early part of the season (April to June), and again at the end of the year (late October to December). Though the basin as a whole is anticipated to have a slow start in 2009, Palau could experience one episode of near-gale (25 to 35 mph) westerly wind associated with a tropical storm or depression that passes to the north between April and June. Two or three such episodes of gusty winds and heavy showers are likely to occur from October to December. Because of its southerly location, it is not anticipated that Palau will experience a direct strike by a strong tropical storm or a typhoon, even though the risk of such an occurrence is considered to be slightly higher than average during La Niña years.

Forecast rainfall for Palau from January 2009 through December 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

January - March 2009

120%
(35.57 inches)

April - June 2009

100%

July - September 2009

100%

October - December 2009

110%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI