Pacific ENSO Update

1st Quarter, 2009 Vol. 15 No. 1

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Typically one of Micronesia’s wettest locations, the 223.67 inches of rain recorded at the Kosrae Airport was the highest annual value seen throughout the region. Other locations in Kosrae saw slightly less rainfall than the total at the airport. Kosrae was hit hard by the phenomenal surf event of early December 2008. High surf sent white water surging across the beach and onto roadways and shoreline properties. At the time of this writing, U.S. government officials are assessing the damage caused by this event.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 4th Quarter 2008

Station  
Oct.
Nov.
Dec.
4th Qtr
Annual
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
12.60
17.41
20.24
50.25
223.67
% of Normal
78%
109%
140%
108%
108%
Utwa*
Rainfall (Inches)
13.08
16.64
19.99
49.71
204.10
% of WSO
81%
105%
138%
107%
99%
Nautilus Hotel*
Rainfall (Inches)
13.94
19.37
23.12
56.43
220.66
% of WSO
86%
122%
N/A
121%
107%
Tofol*
Rainfall (Inches)
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
% of WSO
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.

Climate Outlook: During La Niña, the trade-wind trough and its associated zonal band of cloudiness sharpens, bringing abundant rainfall to Kosrae. The months of March through June (normally the wettest of the year) are anticipated to be especially wet this year. Normal monthly rainfall values at Kosrae typically average between 17 and 20 inches for all months of the year. In the 1st Quarter of 2008, the PEAC Center predicted that five or six of the months during 2008 would see monthly rains in excess of 20 inches; this verified well, with 5 months receiving in excess of 20 inches. The calendar year 2009 should see a similar rainfall distribution. Enhanced easterly winds should continue to cause rough seas and elevated sea level on the eastern reefs and shoreline, at least through the first half of 2009. No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State during 2009.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from January 2009 through December 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)

January - March 2009

110%
(54.35 inches)

April - June 2009

115%

July - September 2009

100%

October - December 2009

110%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI