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The PEAC Center outlook for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin for the remainder of 2008 (November through December) calls for suppressed tropical activity, particularly within Micronesia.

The anticipated distribution of tropical cyclones for the remainder of 2008 substantially reduces the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon at all islands located eastward of 140ºE longitude. For example, Guam (located at 145ºE) will experience a well-below normal risk, while the RMI (located at 170ºE) will have almost no risk of a damaging tropical cyclone.

The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone at Yap or Palau (both located to the west of 140ºE) will be closer to normal, but still unlikely. The upcoming hurricane season for American Samoa is also anticipated to be relatively quiet. (See island summaries for further details.)

The PEAC forecast considered input from two seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of J. C-L. Chan, and, (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Research Group at University College London, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.