Pacific ENSO Update
4th Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 4
Federated States of Micronesia
Pohnpei State: The 3rd Quarter rainfall was below normal almost everywhere across Pohnpei State, with the month of August being notably dry. The 5.69 inches of rainfall at the WSO in Kolonia was only 34% of the normal August value. During September, rainfall amounts increased to values closer to normal. The pattern of a dry July and August, followed by a wetter September, was seen throughout Micronesia. During September, the basin weather patterns were closer to normal, and a few vigorous and widespread tropical disturbances passed through the region. Kapingamarangi typically enters its 3-month dry season in August, and though the rainfall values for August and September were relatively low, they were still slightly above normal.
Pohnpei Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2008
| Station | July | August | Sept. | 3rd Qtr | Predicted |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Pohnpei Island |
||||||
Pohnpei WSO |
Rainfall (inches) | 12.26 |
5.69 |
13.84 |
31.03 |
52.83 |
| % of Normal | 67% |
34% |
86% |
61% |
110% |
|
Palikir |
Rainfall (inches) | 11.68 |
10.91 |
12.61 |
35.20 |
60.50 |
| % of WSO | N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
64% |
110% |
|
Kolonia Airport |
Rainfall (inches) | 8.83 |
7.65 |
12.25 |
28.73 |
47.17 |
| % of WSO | N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
67% |
110% |
|
Atolls of Pohnpei State |
||||||
Nukuoro |
Rainfall (inches) | 18.35 |
13.38 |
19.40 |
51.13 |
40.46
|
| % of Normal | 127% |
118% |
176% |
139% |
110%
|
|
Pingelap |
Rainfall (inches) | 8.64 |
7.14 |
14.79 |
30.57 |
50.19
|
| % of Normal | 54% |
48% |
99% |
67% |
110%
|
|
Mwokilloa |
Rainfall (inches) | 9.32 |
8.76 |
13.37 |
31.45 |
45.52
|
| % of Normal | N/A |
N/A |
N/A |
76% |
110%
|
|
Kapingamarangi |
Rainfall (inches) | 14.00 |
6.92 |
6.06 |
26.98 |
20.23
|
| % of Normal | 134% |
112% |
103% |
120% |
90%
|
|
* Long term normal is not established for these sites
Climate Outlook: Based on a continuation of the pattern of anomalous low-level easterly winds, the risk of a tropical storm or typhoon is very unlikely anywhere in Pohnpei State through the remainder of 2008 into the first half of 2009. In addition, this same easterly wind pattern should be accompanied by near normal rainfall for the foreseeable future. As in the spring of 2008, the rainfall during the spring of 2009 (especially during April and May) could once again be quite wet, at Sapwuafik (Ngetik) and Nukuoro in particular.
Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from October 2008 through September 2009 is as follows:
Forecast Rainfall (inches) |
||
| Pohnpei Islands and Atolls | Kapingamarangi | |
October - December 2008 |
100% (46.91 inches) |
100% (21.85 inches) |
January - March 2009 |
100% | 100% |
April - June 2009 |
120% | 100% |
July - September 2009 |
100% | 100% |
Source: UOG-WERI