Pacific ENSO Update

4th Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 4

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: The pattern of a dry July and August followed by a wetter September was also seen at Kosrae. However, the rainfall total was near normal for the entire 3-month period. During September, all recording locations on Kosrae reported over 20 inches of rain, with Tofol on the east side of the island recording 25.59 inches. There were few places anywhere in the USAPI that had more than 20 inches of rain in any month of 2008.

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 3rd Quarter 2008

Station  
July
August
Sept.
3rd Qtr
Predicted
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
14.76
13.49
23.08
51.33
50.70
% of Normal
87%
82%
134%
101%
100%
Utwa*
Rainfall (Inches)
13.49
12.74
20.68
46.64
50.70
% of WSO
79%
77%
120%
92%
100%
Nautilus Hotel*
Rainfall (Inches)
10.42
14.91
20.35
45.68
50.70
% of WSO
61%
90%
118%
90%
100%
Tofol*
Rainfall (Inches)
14.73
13.33
25.59
53.65
50.70
% of WSO
87%
81%
149%
106%
100%
Predictions made in 2nd Quarter 2008 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites.

Climate Outlook: The risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon is very unlikely at Kosrae during the remainder of 2008 through the first half of 2009. Based on the continuation of anomalously strong low-level easterly wind flow, rainfall at Kosrae should be near normal for the foreseeable future.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from October 2008 through September 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
October - December 2008
100%
(46.60 inches)

January - March 2009

110%

April - June 2009

110%

July - September 2009

95%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI