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The PEAC tropical cyclone outlook1 for the remainder of the typhoon season of 2008 is for more activity in the western North Pacific basin than occurred there in 2007, which was a very quiet year. Through August, the geographical distribution of western North Pacific tropical cyclones should still reflect a pattern that is typical of La Niña: a shift of activity to the north and west of normal. In the Fall of 2008, the typhoon distribution should return to near normal, placing the islands from Chuuk and westward into a near normal risk for a typhoon. Islands from Pohnpei and eastward into the RMI experience tropical storms and typhoons primarily during El Niño. The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone in these locations is considered low during the remainder of 2008 (but not so extraordinarily low as it was in 2007).

On 24 June 2008, The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research issued an updated forecast for western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity. Their forecast for 2008 is for basin-wide cyclone activity to be normal to slightly above-normal, which is consistent with their forecast made earlier in the year. The PEAC concurs with this forecast, but with the added comment that much of this activity will be located to the north and west of most of the islands of Micronesia.

The PEAC forecast considered input from two seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of J. C-L. Chan, and, (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Research Group at University College London, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.

The previous forecast from the Hong Kong Center called for slightly above normal tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin for 2008; specifically: 2 more named cyclones than average and one more typhoon than average. Their forecast is a balance of ENSO factors that suggest near normal activity with some recent regional weather patterns in February and March that suggest above average activity. The TSR consortium anticipates that the 2008 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see below average activity. The TSR group is expecting a fairly large (20%) reduction in most categories: annual number of tropical cyclones, annual number of intense typhoons, and the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). ACE is a measure of the total energy expended by a tropical cyclone during its life, and is therefore dependent on the intensity of a storm as well as its total lifetime. These forecasts span the full Northwest Pacific season from January to December. The activity so far in 2008 has been below normal and displaced to the west.