Pacific ENSO Update
3rd Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 3
Republic of the Marshall Islands: Several locations in the Marshall Islands were among the driest in the USAPI during the first half of 2008, both in terms of observed rainfall amount and percent of normal (see Fig. 1). Islands in the northern RMI (e.g., Kwajalein and Wotje) were particularly dry, with only about 80% of normal rainfall. Even some islands and atolls further south such as Alinglaplap and Jaluit were quite dry. The 50.45 inches of rainfall at the WSO Majuro during the first half of 2008 was 88% of normal. During the course of the La Niña event of 2007, and now into the first half of 2008, there has been a tendency for some of the atolls of the RMI (particularly in the north) to be dry.
Republic of the Marshall Islands Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2008
| Station | April | May | June | 2nd Qtr | 1st Half |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RMI Central Atolls (6°N - 8°N) |
||||||
Majuro WSO |
Rainfall (inches) | 5.25 |
12.53 |
9.29 |
27.07 |
50.45
|
| % of Normal | 46% |
109% |
84% |
80% |
88%
|
|
Alinglaplap* |
Rainfall (inches) | 11.33 |
3.58 |
3.71 |
18.62 |
40.44
|
| % of Normal | 127% |
34% |
35% |
62% |
85% |
|
RMI Southern Atolls (South of 6 °N) |
||||||
Jaluit* |
Rainfall (inches) | 3.08 |
8.09 |
4.71 |
15.88 |
34.69 |
| % of Normal | 30% |
72% |
41% |
48% |
62% |
|
RMI Northern Atolls (North of 8°N) |
||||||
Kwajalein |
Rainfall (inches) | 5.24 |
7.63 |
5.34 |
18.21 |
32.38 |
| % of Normal | 69% |
76% |
56% |
67% |
83%
|
|
Wotje*
|
Rainfall (inches) | 3.90 |
3.81 |
5.07** |
12.78 |
21.95
|
| % of Normal | 54% |
40% |
55% |
50% |
59% |
|
** Estimated
Climate Outlook: There has been a persistent tendency for below normal rainfall in the Marshall Islands for many months, and slightly below normal rainfall is anticipated for most of the atolls of the RMI for the next several months. It is now the rainy season in the RMI, and slightly below normal rainfall should still be adequate to meet fresh-water needs. There is no climatic condition present (or forecast) that would indicate severe dryness at any of the atolls of the RMI during the next dry season of 2008-09. However, due to a high population and limited water storage capacity on Majuro, one to two months of dry conditions can lead to stringent water restrictions.
Forecast rainfall for the RMI from July 2008 through June 2009 is as follows:
Forecast Rainfall (inches) |
|||
S. of 6° N |
6° N to 8° N |
N. of 8° N |
|
July - September 2008 (Rainy Season) |
95% (34.50 inches) |
95% (34.50 inches) |
85% (27.61 inches) |
October - December 2008 (Start of Dry Season) |
95% |
100% |
95% |
January - March 2009 (Dry Season) |
100% |
90% |
85% |
April - June2009 (Onset of Rains) |
100% |
100% |
90% |
source: UOG-WERI