Pacific ENSO Update

3rd Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 3

FSM Flag Federated States of Micronesia

Kosrae State: Rainfall during the first half of 2008 was near normal to slightly above normal at recording sites around Kosrae. Typically one of Micronesia’s wettest locations, the 122.09 inches at the Kosrae Airport during the first half of the year was the highest official value seen throughout the region (beaten only by the experimental readings on Pohnpei’s Nahna Laud).

Kosrae Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2008

Station  
April
May
June
2nd Qtr
1st Half
Kosrae Airport (SAWRS)
Rainfall (Inches)
23.70
26.72
16.57
66.99
122.09
% of Normal
109%
142%
87%
113%
112%
Utwa*
 Rainfall (Inches)
20.48
22.78
15.10
58.36
107.75
% of WSO
95%
121%
79%
98%
99%
Nautilus Hotel*
 Rainfall (Inches)
24.36
19.26
19.06
62.68
118.55
% of WSO
112%
102%
100%
105%
109%
Tofol*
 Rainfall (Inches)
22.13
23.51
21.04
66.68
121.49**
% of WSO
102%
125%
111%
112%
112%
* Long term normal is not established for these sites
** Estimated

Climate Outlook: Tranquil weather (no unusual extremes of rainfall or high wind) and light easterly winds should continue to dominate the flow in eastern Micronesia for the next few months. Normal monthly rainfall values at Kosrae are typically between 17 and 20 inches for all months of the year, and it is expected that values for the next few months should be near or slightly below this. No adverse tropical cyclone activity is expected for Kosrae State during 2008.

Forecast rainfall for Kosrae State from July 2008 through June 2009 is as follows:


Inclusive Period
% of Long-Term Average Rainfall /
Forecast Rainfall (inches)
July - September 2008
95%
(48.17 inches)
October - December 2008
100%
January - March 2009
95%
April - June 2009
110%
Forecast rainfall quantities represent BEST ESTIMATES given the probabalistic forecast for each particular season and station.

source: UOG-WERI