Chuuk State:  The amount of rainfall during the first half of 2008 was slightly below normal in the northern atolls (Fananu and Onoun), and generally wetter than normal at sites in Chuuk Lagoon and in the Mortlocks. To the west, at Polowat, rainfall totals were slightly below normal for the 2nd Quarter and 1st half of 2008. Nama, in the Northern Mortlocks, recorded the highest totals in Chuuk for both the 2nd Quarter (51.08 inches) and the 1st Half (85.11 inches) of 2008. The two driest Chuuk locations during the first half of 2008 were Fananu in the northern atolls and Polowat in the west, with 55.68 inches and 44.16 inches, respectively. The weather was generally tranquil throughout Chuuk State during the first half of 2008 with no unusually heavy rains or strong wind. One period of relatively heavy rainfall on the island of Weno in Chuuk Lagoon on the last day of June 2008 resulted in 3.28 inches of rainfall within a 24-hour period. This heavy rainfall, while not unusually excessive by Chuuk standards, caused some localized flooding of roadways.

Chuuk State Rainfall Summary 2nd Quarter and 1st Half 2008

Climate Outlook: Based on the return of ENSO-neutral conditions, rainfall at islands and atolls of Chuuk State should be near normal for most months during the remainder of 2008. Recent dryness in July should be balanced by near normal rainfall for the next two or three months, resulting in near normal or slightly below-normal overall rainfall for the July – September 2008 season. Because of persistent local atmospheric wind patterns that have continued to linger after the recent La Niña event, the threat of a direct strike by a strong tropical storm or typhoon on any of the islands of Chuuk State should be slightly below normal for the remainder of 2008; any tropical cyclones that form near Chuuk will likely be in their disturbance or depression state of development, and should only become tropical storms after passing out of Chuuk State. The weather over the next few months should be tranquil (with no unusually excessive rainfall or strong wind), although some relatively heavy rain events (more than 2 inches of rainfall in one day) may occur episodically in association with tropical disturbances in the area.

Forecast rainfall for Chuuk State from July 2008 through June 2009 is as follows:

source: UOG-WERI