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The PEAC outlook for tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin for the remainder of 2008 (April through December) is for near-normal activity in every category (e.g., number of typhoons and number of intense typhoons). The 2007 tropical cyclone season of the western North Pacific basin was unusually quiet, and the activity was shifted westward. Cyclone activity during 2008 will most certainly be higher than it was in 2007 and there may still be a westward bias to the typhoon distribution, albeit not quite as pronounced as during 2007. The anticipated distribution of tropical cyclones for 2008 reduces the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon at all islands located eastward of 140ºE. For example, Guam (at 145ºE) will experience a slightly below normal risk while the Marshall Islands (at 170ºE) will have a very low risk of a damaging tropical cyclone. The risk of a damaging tropical cyclone at Yap or Palau (both located to the west of 140ºE) will be near normal (see island summaries for further details).

The PEAC forecast considered input from two seasonal outlooks for tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin: (1) The City University of Hong Kong Laboratory for Atmospheric Research, under the direction of J. C-L. Chan, and, (2) The Benfield Hazard Research Centre Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) Research Group at University College London, UK, led by Dr Adam Lea and Professor Mark Saunders.

The Hong Kong Center calls for slightly above normal tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific basin for 2008; specifically: 2 more named cyclones than average and one more typhoon than average. Their forecast is a balance of ENSO factors that suggest near normal activity with some recent regional weather patterns in February and March that suggest above average activity. The TSR consortium, anticipates that the 2008 Northwest Pacific typhoon season will see below average activity. The TSR group is expecting a fairly large (20%) reduction in most categories: annual number of tropical cyclones, annual number of intense typhoons, and the accumulated cyclone energy (ACE). ACE is a measure of the total energy expended by a tropical cyclone during its life, and is therefore dependent on the intensity of a storm as well as its total lifetime. These forecasts span the full Northwest Pacific season from January to December. The activity so far in 2008 has been below normal and displaced to the west.