Pohnpei Vol.14, No.2

Pohnpei State: With the notable exception of Kapingamarangi, rainfall was generally above normal throughout all of Pohnpei State during the 1st Quarter of 2008. On Pohnpei Island, the three-month totals were approximately 35 to 45 inches at all recording locations around the coastal perimeter of the island. The 43.63 inches at the WSO Kolonia was 117% of the normal 37.41 inches typically experienced there during the 1st Quarter. The outer atolls of Pohnpei State had a wide variety of rainfall amounts during the 1st Quarter of 2008, with Nukuoro recording 59.60 inches (the highest 3-month total at any recording site in Micronesia). Pingelap’s 1st Quarter total of 34.37 inches was 88% of its normal. Meanwhile, La Niña-related dryness was finally felt at Kapingamarangi, where rainfall has been above normal for many months. After an above normal total of 15.16 inches recorded there during January 2008, the rainfall at Kapingamarangi steadily dropped to 7.95 inches (77% of normal) in February and then to only 2.74 inches (20% of normal) in March. The three-month total of 25.85 inches recorded at Kapingamarangi was 75% of normal.

Predictions made in 4th Quarter 2007 Pacifc ENSO Update newsletter.
* Long term normal is not established for these sites

Climate Outlook: Because of weather patterns associated with La Niña, the risk of a damaging tropical storm or typhoon is very unlikely at any island in Pohnpei State through all of 2008. In the fall of 2008, as the tropical cyclone activity of the western North Pacific makes its typical shift eastward, the very early stages of some developing tropical cyclones may bring some episodes of heavy rain to Pohnpei Island; however, these systems should not become tropical storms or typhoons until they are well away from Pohnpei.

Based on the continuation of La Niña conditions for the next few months, rainfall at Pohnpei Island and the atolls of Pohnpei State should be near normal for the foreseeable future. The only exception to the expectation of overall normal rainfall in Pohnpei State will be at Kapingamarangi, where La Niña related weather patterns may cause conditions to remain drier than normal over the next few months. For this reason it may be prudent for residents of Kapingamarangi to continue voluntary conservation measures of drinking water.

Forecast rainfall for Pohnpei State from May 2008 through April 2009 is as follows:

Pacific ENSO Update

2nd Quarter, 2008 Vol. 14 No. 2